Alumina Market

The global alumina market is forecasted to experience steady growth in consumption and market value over the period from 2022 to 2030, with a projected CAGR of +3.9% in volume and +6.3% in value. China dominates in both consumption and production of alumina, with a notable increase in per capita consumption in Bahrain. Australia leads in alumina exports. Import prices have seen fluctuations, with China having the highest export price. Overall, the alumina market is expected to continue growing in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for alumina worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 189M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $125.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Alumina

In 2022, approx. 139M tons of alumina were consumed worldwide; increasing by 1.9% on 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 141M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global alumina market revenue expanded significantly to $76.6B in 2022, with an increase of 6.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +10.6% against 2019 indices. Global consumption peaked at $80.1B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (75M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of alumina consumption, comprising approx. 54% of total volume. Moreover, alumina consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Russia (8.1M tons), ninefold. India (7.7M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +5.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+0.5% per year) and India (+6.1% per year).

In value terms, China ($48B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United Arab Emirates ($3.7B). It was followed by Russia.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +3.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United Arab Emirates (+12.1% per year) and Russia (+3.5% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of alumina per capita consumption was registered in Bahrain (1,709 kg per person), followed by Norway (483 kg per person), the United Arab Emirates (442 kg per person) and Australia (161 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of alumina was estimated at 18 kg per person.

In Bahrain, alumina per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +17.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Norway (+1.0% per year) and the United Arab Emirates (+17.1% per year).

Production

World Production of Alumina

In 2022, production of alumina decreased by -0.3% to 139M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 9%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 139M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, alumina production reached $68.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -0.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 56% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $89.6B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (74M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of alumina production, comprising approx. 53% of total volume. Moreover, alumina production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Australia (21M tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Brazil (11M tons), with a 7.7% share.

In China, alumina production increased at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Australia (-0.0% per year) and Brazil (+0.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Alumina

In 2022, the amount of alumina imported worldwide reached 37M tons, almost unchanged from the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, alumina imports skyrocketed to $17.5B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +51.2% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 31%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the twelve major importers of alumina, namely Russia, Canada, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, India, Malaysia, China, Iceland, the United States, South Africa and Qatar, represented more than two-thirds of total import.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Malaysia (with a CAGR of +69.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest alumina importing markets worldwide were Russia ($2.6B), Canada ($1.7B) and Bahrain ($1.2B), together comprising 32% of global imports. The United Arab Emirates, India, Norway, China, Malaysia, the United States, Iceland, South Africa and Qatar lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Malaysia, with a CAGR of +53.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average alumina import price amounted to $472 per ton, rising by 19% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the average import price increased by 30% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $495 per ton. From 2019 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the United States ($518 per ton) and Russia ($506 per ton), while Canada ($393 per ton) and Norway ($395 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates (+5.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Alumina

In 2022, approx. 37M tons of alumina were exported worldwide; dropping by -7.4% on the previous year. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 60% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 40M tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, alumina exports expanded notably to $15.9B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Australia was the main exporting country with an export of around 17M tons, which amounted to 45% of total exports. Brazil (8.5M tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Indonesia (2M tons). All these countries together held near 28% share of total exports. Ireland (1,597K tons), India (1,427K tons), Spain (987K tons), Kazakhstan (913K tons), China (677K tons), the Netherlands (626K tons) and Jamaica (606K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +370.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Australia ($6.1B), Brazil ($3.1B) and Indonesia ($772M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 63% share of global exports.

Indonesia, with a CAGR of +323.5%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average alumina export price stood at $424 per ton in 2022, surging by 16% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, alumina export price increased by +30.9% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the average export price increased by 40% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $486 per ton. From 2019 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($840 per ton), while Australia ($363 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+3.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform