Breakfast Cereal Market

Driven by an increasing demand for breakfast cereals worldwide, the market is forecasted to experience growth in consumption and value from 2022 to 2030. Consumption volume is expected to reach 32M tons by 2030, with a market value of $95.8B. The top consuming and producing countries in 2022 were the United States, China, and India. Turkey showed the most significant growth rate in consumption and production. Import and export trends also indicate global market expansion for breakfast cereals.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for breakfast cereals worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 32M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $95.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Breakfast Cereals

In 2022, the amount of breakfast cereals consumed worldwide rose to 25M tons, with an increase of 1.7% on the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 9.4%. Global consumption peaked at 25M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global breakfast cereal market revenue stood at $63.5B in 2022, approximately reflecting the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 9.5% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $64.7B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (4M tons), China (3.2M tons) and India (1.3M tons), together comprising 35% of global consumption. Brazil, Indonesia, the UK, Japan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Italy, Turkey and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +8.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($10.1B), China ($8.4B) and Japan ($3.7B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 35% share of the global market. Turkey, Indonesia, the UK, India, Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +10.7%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of breakfast cereal per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (12 kg per person), the UK (8.8 kg per person) and Italy (7.3 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +7.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Breakfast Cereals

Global breakfast cereal production was estimated at 25M tons in 2022, with an increase of 2.4% on the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 9%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, breakfast cereal production totaled $65.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +1.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 17%. Global production peaked at $79.6B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (3.9M tons), China (3.3M tons) and India (1.4M tons), with a combined 35% share of global production. Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, the UK, Mexico, Japan, Pakistan, Nigeria, South Korea and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +8.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Breakfast Cereals

In 2022, overseas purchases of breakfast cereals decreased by -2.1% to 2.9M tons, falling for the second year in a row after nine years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 8.7% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 3M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, breakfast cereal imports expanded notably to $7.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 7.2%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of breakfast cereal imports in 2022 were the United States (205K tons), Canada (200K tons), Germany (196K tons), France (162K tons), the UK (129K tons), the Netherlands (125K tons), Belgium (124K tons), China (95K tons), Iraq (95K tons), Italy (80K tons), Spain (79K tons) and Sweden (57K tons), together finishing at 54% of total import. Ireland (49K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +19.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest breakfast cereal importing markets worldwide were the United States ($890M), Canada ($619M) and Germany ($513M), with a combined 26% share of global imports. France, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, China, Sweden, Spain, Ireland and Iraq lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

Among the main importing countries, China, with a CAGR of +16.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average breakfast cereal import price stood at $2,739 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 7.3% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($4,339 per ton), while Iraq ($727 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Breakfast Cereals

In 2022, approx. 2.9M tons of breakfast cereals were exported worldwide; surging by 3.4% against the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 6.3%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, breakfast cereal exports expanded slightly to $8B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 9.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the twelve major exporters of breakfast cereals, namely Turkey, Germany, Belgium, the UK, Poland, France, Spain, Canada, the Netherlands, the United States, Mexico and China, represented more than two-thirds of total export. Thailand (74K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +10.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest breakfast cereal supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($786M), the United States ($746M) and the UK ($655M), with a combined 27% share of global exports. Belgium, Poland, Spain, France, Canada, the Netherlands, China, Mexico, Turkey and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 47%.

Among the main exporting countries, Thailand, with a CAGR of +10.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average breakfast cereal export price stood at $2,794 per ton in 2022, rising by 1.5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 9.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($5,747 per ton), while Turkey ($753 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+9.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform