Canary Seed Market

The article discusses the projected growth of the global canary seed market over the next eight years, with an anticipated increase in both volume and value terms. Key insights include the leading countries in consumption and production, such as Canada, Thailand, and Belgium. The market is expected to see a slight increase in performance, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.8% for volume and +4.7% for value from 2022 to 2030. Import and export trends, as well as fluctuations in prices and production levels, are also analyzed to provide a comprehensive overview of the canary seed market.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for canary seed worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 348K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $290M (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Canary Seed

In 2022, the amount of canary seed consumed worldwide shrank to 258K tons, with a decrease of -9.6% against 2021. Overall, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 292K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global canary seed market revenue rose slightly to $200M in 2022, picking up by 3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $211M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Thailand (37K tons), Canada (27K tons) and Brazil (26K tons), together comprising 35% of global consumption. Belgium, Spain, Argentina, Algeria, Colombia, Indonesia, the United States, Hungary, Egypt and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Algeria (with a CAGR of +13.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest canary seed markets worldwide were Thailand ($32M), Belgium ($17M) and Brazil ($15M), together comprising 32% of the global market. Canada, Spain, Colombia, Algeria, Indonesia, the United States, Egypt, Italy, Argentina and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

Among the main consuming countries, Algeria, with a CAGR of +17.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of canary seed per capita consumption was registered in Belgium (1,875 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Canada (710 kg per 1000 persons), Thailand (526 kg per 1000 persons) and Hungary (504 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of canary seed was estimated at 33 kg per 1000 persons.

In Belgium, canary seed per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Canada (-1.5% per year) and Thailand (+0.4% per year).

Production

World Production of Canary Seed

In 2022, approx. 286K tons of canary seed were produced worldwide; waning by -7.5% on 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 21%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 313K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a modest expansion of the harvested area and a mild increase in yield figures.

In value terms, canary seed production shrank to $174M in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a mild curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $196M, and then declined in the following year.

Production By Country

Canada (159K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of canary seed production, comprising approx. 56% of total volume. Moreover, canary seed production in Canada exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Thailand (36K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Argentina (36K tons), with a 13% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Canada was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Thailand (+0.7% per year) and Argentina (+1.7% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average canary seed yield declined to 1.1 tons per ha, reducing by -5.3% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the yield, however, saw modest growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the yield increased by 35%. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of 1.4 tons per ha. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the average canary seed yield remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global canary seed harvested area contracted to 252K ha in 2022, waning by -2.3% on the previous year. Overall, the harvested area, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 21%. The global harvested area peaked at 258K ha in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Canary Seed

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of canary seed, when their volume decreased by -13.9% to 163K tons. In general, imports saw a slight setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 12% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 210K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, canary seed imports rose remarkably to $143M in 2022. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at $165M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

Brazil (26K tons) and Belgium (24K tons) represented the main importers of canary seed in 2022, reaching near 16% and 15% of total imports, respectively. Spain (11K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Algeria (8.3K tons), Colombia (7.9K tons) and the United States (7.9K tons). All these countries together took approx. 22% share of total imports. The following importers - Indonesia (7K tons), Italy (4.9K tons), Turkey (4.2K tons), Mexico (4.1K tons), China (4.1K tons), Portugal (4.1K tons) and Morocco (3.9K tons) - together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +61.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest canary seed importing markets worldwide were Belgium ($21M), Brazil ($14M) and Spain ($11M), together comprising 33% of global imports. Colombia, Algeria, the United States, Indonesia, Italy, Morocco, China, Portugal, Mexico and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

China, with a CAGR of +66.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average canary seed import price amounted to $874 per ton, growing by 29% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, canary seed import price increased by +65.0% against 2018 indices. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Morocco ($1,178 per ton), while Turkey ($486 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Colombia (+4.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Canary Seed

In 2022, approx. 191K tons of canary seed were exported worldwide; which is down by -10.3% against 2021 figures. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 13%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 213K tons, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, canary seed exports stood at $161M in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +66.6% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Canada represented the key exporter of canary seed in the world, with the volume of exports finishing at 132K tons, which was approx. 69% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Argentina (27K tons), mixing up a 14% share of total exports. Turkey (6.3K tons), the UK (5.4K tons) and the Netherlands (3.3K tons) held a little share of total exports.

Canada experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of canary seed. At the same time, the UK (+42.5%), Turkey (+27.7%), the Netherlands (+14.7%) and Argentina (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the UK emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +42.5% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Turkey, the UK and Canada increased by +3, +2.7 and +2.2 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Canada ($127M) remains the largest canary seed supplier worldwide, comprising 79% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Argentina ($11M), with a 7% share of global exports. It was followed by the UK, with a 2.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Canada stood at +3.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Argentina (-4.2% per year) and the UK (+35.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average canary seed export price stood at $845 per ton in 2022, growing by 26% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, canary seed export price increased by +62.5% against 2017 indices. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,033 per ton), while Argentina ($413 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+2.4%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform