Cane Molasses Market

The global cane molasses market is expected to see an increase in consumption, production, exports, and imports from 2022 to 2030. Key trends include a slight increase in market performance, with a forecasted CAGR of +0.8% in consumption and +1.1% in production. The market volume is projected to reach 12M tons, with a value of $5B by 2030. The market saw fluctuations in consumption and production over the past decade, with notable growth in some key countries. Import and export prices are also expected to continue their upward trend in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for cane molasses worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 12M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cane Molasses

In 2022, consumption of cane molasses decreased by -1.6% to 11M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 13M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global cane molasses market revenue reduced to $4B in 2022, which is down by -6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +54.1% against 2018 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $4.2B, and then fell in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (1.3M tons), the United States (896K tons) and the Philippines (638K tons), together accounting for 26% of global consumption. The UK, Vietnam, South Korea, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Germany, Russia, Mozambique, Spain and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Mozambique (with a CAGR of +21.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($914M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Bangladesh ($354M). It was followed by Brazil.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China amounted to +5.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Bangladesh (-0.8% per year) and Brazil (-1.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of cane molasses per capita consumption in 2022 were South Korea (7.9 kg per person), the UK (7.1 kg per person) and Mozambique (6.9 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Mozambique (with a CAGR of +18.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cane Molasses

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in production of cane molasses, when its volume decreased by -5.3% to 11M tons. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 15%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 13M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cane molasses production dropped to $3.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +56.0% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 40%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $4.5B, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were India (1.7M tons), China (1.3M tons) and Indonesia (713K tons), together accounting for 34% of global production. Australia, Guatemala, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mozambique, El Salvador, Bangladesh, Russia, Brazil and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mozambique (with a CAGR of +15.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Cane Molasses

In 2022, global imports of cane molasses expanded notably to 5M tons, increasing by 15% against the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 18%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, cane molasses imports soared to $1.1B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated measured growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +74.3% against 2017 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the five major importers of cane molasses, namely the United States, the Philippines, the UK, Vietnam and South Korea, represented more than half of total import. The following importers - Ireland (168K tons), Spain (164K tons), the Netherlands (149K tons), Italy (139K tons), Thailand (137K tons), Belgium (135K tons), Denmark (135K tons) and Japan (134K tons) - each resulted at a 23% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +49.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cane molasses importing markets worldwide were the United States ($181M), the Philippines ($141M) and the UK ($128M), with a combined 42% share of global imports.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +42.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cane molasses import price amounted to $210 per ton, increasing by 11% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($270 per ton), while Vietnam ($148 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+6.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cane Molasses

Global cane molasses exports amounted to 4.8M tons in 2022, surging by 5.2% against 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 18%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, cane molasses exports stood at $852M in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +85.5% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 33%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, India (1.7M tons) was the major exporter of cane molasses, constituting 35% of total exports. Indonesia (604K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Australia (403K tons), Pakistan (303K tons), Guatemala (263K tons) and El Salvador (251K tons). All these countries together held approx. 38% share of total exports. Thailand (153K tons), Nicaragua (149K tons), the Dominican Republic (141K tons) and Honduras (94K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from India increased at an average annual rate of +15.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the Dominican Republic (+90.1%), Pakistan (+22.5%), Nicaragua (+9.1%), Guatemala (+5.1%), Indonesia (+4.5%), El Salvador (+2.0%) and Honduras (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Dominican Republic emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +90.1% from 2012-2022. Australia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Thailand (-16.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of India, Pakistan, Indonesia, the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Guatemala increased by +25, +5.3, +3.1, +2.9, +1.6 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($264M) remains the largest cane molasses supplier worldwide, comprising 31% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Indonesia ($101M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Australia, with a 7.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in India totaled +20.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+8.8% per year) and Australia (+6.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cane molasses export price stood at $178 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 8.9% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.6%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the average export price increased by 18% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Honduras ($374 per ton), while El Salvador ($146 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand (+7.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform