Cellulose and its Chemical Derivatives in Primary Forms Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global market for cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms, forecasting an upward consumption trend with a projected increase in market volume and value by 2030. Key insights include consumption patterns, production trends, import/export dynamics, and growth rates across different countries. Notable observations include increases in consumption and production volumes over recent years, with the highest levels in China, the United States, and India. The analysis also highlights changes in per capita consumption, import/export prices, and the major importing/exporting countries. Overall, the article offers valuable information on market performance and trends in the global cellulose market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $18.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cellulose and its Chemical Derivatives in Primary Forms

In 2022, consumption of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms increased by 5.2% to 3M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption of attained the peak volume at 3.1M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The size of the market for cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms worldwide amounted to $13.7B in 2022, rising by 13% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (618K tons), the United States (393K tons) and India (264K tons), together comprising 43% of global consumption. The Netherlands, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Japan, Germany, Mexico, Italy and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +30.1%), while forms for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($2.1B), China ($1.8B) and the Netherlands ($1.1B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 37% share of the global market.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +28.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while forms for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of per capita consumption of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms was registered in the Netherlands (11 kg per person), followed by Turkey (1.2 kg per person), the United States (1.2 kg per person) and Italy (1 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms was estimated at 0.4 kg per person.

In the Netherlands, per capita consumption of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms increased at an average annual rate of +29.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Turkey (+7.7% per year) and the United States (+6.5% per year).

Production

World Production of Cellulose and its Chemical Derivatives in Primary Forms

In 2022, production of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms increased by 5.7% to 3M tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 8% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 3M tons in 2017; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, production of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms expanded sharply to $11.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 10%. Over the period under review, global production of attained the peak level at $13.5B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (846K tons), the United States (522K tons) and Germany (265K tons), together accounting for 54% of global production. The Netherlands, India, Turkey, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Russia, Thailand, Finland and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +19.1%), while forms for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Cellulose and its Chemical Derivatives in Primary Forms

In 2022, the amount of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms imported worldwide expanded modestly to 1.4M tons, surging by 2.7% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 10% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, imports of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms rose significantly to $7.3B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (119K tons), India (90K tons), China (83K tons), Belgium (72K tons), Russia (63K tons), Italy (62K tons), Turkey (48K tons), Brazil (46K tons), Germany (40K tons), Poland (40K tons), the Netherlands (37K tons) and South Korea (36K tons) was the major importer of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms in the world, constituting 52% of total import. France (34K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +8.5%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($608M), the United States ($545M) and China ($498M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 23% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, India, with a CAGR of +9.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms amounted to $5,159 per ton, increasing by 12% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was India ($6,731 per ton), while Poland ($4,089 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cellulose and its Chemical Derivatives in Primary Forms

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms, which increased by 3.8% to 1.5M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports of reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, exports of cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms stood at $7.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +64.8% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 18%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from China (311K tons), the United States (248K tons) and Germany (227K tons), together recording 54% of total export. It was distantly followed by Belgium (70K tons), mixing up a 4.8% share of total exports. Turkey (65K tons), the Netherlands (60K tons), South Korea (58K tons), Finland (54K tons), Thailand (46K tons), India (45K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (41K tons), Ireland (31K tons) and Brazil (29K tons) held a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +8.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($1.5B), Germany ($1.3B) and China ($1.2B), with a combined 53% share of global exports. Belgium, the Netherlands, South Korea, Ireland, Finland, Thailand, Taiwan (Chinese), India, Turkey and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +11.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average export price for cellulose and its chemical derivatives in primary forms amounted to $5,154 per ton, rising by 9.7% against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($7,197 per ton), while Turkey ($2,052 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+5.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform