Coconut Oil Market

The article discusses the increasing global demand for coconut (copra) oil, with projections showing a steady rise in consumption volume and value. Key market trends, including CAGR forecasts, consumption patterns, production volumes, imports, and exports are analyzed. The top consuming and producing countries are identified, along with trends in per capita consumption and average import prices. The data highlights the growth potential of the coconut oil market and provides insights for industry stakeholders.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for coconut (copra) oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Coconut Oil

In 2022, the amount of coconut (copra) oil consumed worldwide amounted to 4.2M tons, approximately mirroring the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The global coconut oil market size amounted to $7.9B in 2022, surging by 4.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the Netherlands (512K tons), the United States (510K tons) and the Philippines (438K tons), with a combined 35% share of global consumption. India, Malaysia, Germany, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, Mexico, Italy and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +11.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($897M), the Philippines ($855M) and the Netherlands ($819M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 33% of the global market. India, Mexico, Germany, Malaysia, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Italy and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 42%.

Malaysia, with a CAGR of +13.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of coconut oil per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (29 kg per person), followed by Malaysia (8.2 kg per person), the Philippines (3.9 kg per person) and Germany (3.2 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of coconut oil was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the coconut oil per capita consumption in the Netherlands stood at +1.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Malaysia (+9.6% per year) and the Philippines (-2.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Coconut Oil

In 2022, the amount of coconut (copra) oil produced worldwide fell modestly to 3.4M tons, almost unchanged from 2021. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the production volume increased by 7.2% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 3.9M tons. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, coconut oil production dropped modestly to $6.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 27%. Global production peaked at $7.1B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the Philippines (1M tons), Indonesia (891K tons) and India (342K tons), with a combined 66% share of global production. The Netherlands, Vietnam, Mexico, Sri Lanka and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 21%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +4.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Coconut Oil

Global coconut oil imports soared to 2.6M tons in 2022, jumping by 16% on 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 17%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, coconut oil imports skyrocketed to $5.1B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +113.8% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 63%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The United States (535K tons), the Netherlands (414K tons) and Malaysia (360K tons) represented roughly 50% of total imports in 2022. Germany (230K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by China (219K tons). All these countries together took near 17% share of total imports. Italy (92K tons), Russia (66K tons), Indonesia (56K tons), Spain (56K tons), South Korea (53K tons), France (51K tons) and Belgium (47K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +9.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($1.1B), the Netherlands ($749M) and Malaysia ($584M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 47% share of global imports. Germany, China, Italy, Russia, Spain, South Korea, Indonesia, France and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Among the main importing countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +14.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, crude coconut (copra) oil (1.4M tons), followed by refined coconut (copra) oil (1.3M tons) were the major types of coconut (copra) oil, together mixing up 100% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for refined coconut (copra) oil (with a CAGR of +3.6%).

In value terms, the largest types of imported coconut (copra) oil were refined coconut (copra) oil ($2.6B) and crude coconut (copra) oil ($2.4B).

Refined coconut (copra) oil, with a CAGR of +7.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main imported products over the period under review.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average coconut oil import price amounted to $1,933 per ton, growing by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, coconut oil import price increased by +80.3% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 49% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was refined coconut (copra) oil ($2,089 per ton), while the price for crude coconut (copra) oil amounted to $1,789 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by crude coconut oil (+3.7%).

Import Prices By Country

The average coconut oil import price stood at $1,933 per ton in 2022, increasing by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, coconut oil import price increased by +80.3% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 49% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Belgium ($2,046 per ton) and the United States ($2,019 per ton), while Malaysia ($1,625 per ton) and the Netherlands ($1,811 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+6.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Coconut Oil

In 2022, overseas shipments of coconut (copra) oil increased by 17% to 1.9M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, exports, however, saw a slight curtailment. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 2.3M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, coconut oil exports soared to $4.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +105.7% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Indonesia (708K tons) and the Philippines (585K tons) represented roughly 69% of total exports in 2022. The Netherlands (209K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with an 11% share, followed by Malaysia (7.2%). The following exporters - Papua New Guinea (31K tons) and India (28K tons) - each resulted at a 3.2% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +13.8%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

In value terms, the Philippines ($2.1B), Indonesia ($1.1B) and the Netherlands ($433M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 81% of global exports. Malaysia, India and Papua New Guinea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 8.1%.

Among the main exporting countries, India, with a CAGR of +13.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, refined coconut (copra) oil (1.1M tons), distantly followed by crude coconut (copra) oil (808K tons) were the main types of coconut (copra) oil, together creating 100% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for refined coconut (copra) oil (with a CAGR of +1.3%).

In value terms, crude coconut (copra) oil ($2.3B) and refined coconut (copra) oil ($2.2B) were the products with the highest levels of exports in 2022.

Refined coconut (copra) oil, with a CAGR of +5.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exported products over the period under review.

Export Prices By Type

The average coconut oil export price stood at $2,394 per ton in 2022, increasing by 6.2% against the previous year. Overall, the export price enjoyed a resilient expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 51%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was crude coconut (copra) oil ($2,817 per ton), while the average price for exports of refined coconut (copra) oil amounted to $2,075 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by crude coconut oil (+9.1%).

Export Prices By Country

The average coconut oil export price stood at $2,394 per ton in 2022, picking up by 6.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 51%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Philippines ($3,591 per ton), while Papua New Guinea ($1,312 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+11.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform