Derivatives Of Hydrocarbons Market

The global market for derivatives of hydrocarbons is facing a decline in both volume and value, with a forecasted contraction in consumption and production. Kuwait leads in both production and exports, while India is the top importer of derivatives of hydrocarbons. Japan and South Korea are also significant importers. Prices have fluctuated over the years, with noticeable growth rates among different countries. Overall, the market is experiencing a downward trend with fluctuations in prices and trade dynamics.

Market Forecast

Depressed by shrinking demand for derivatives of hydrocarbons worldwide, the market is expected to continue its downward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 80K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -0.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $355M (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Derivatives of Hydrocarbons other than Containing Only Sulpho-, Nitro-, or Nitroso Groups

For the fifth consecutive year, the global market recorded decline in consumption of derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups, which decreased by -1.9% to 118K tons in 2022. In general, consumption faced a deep setback. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 1.3M tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global derivatives of hydrocarbons market value rose remarkably to $369M in 2022, with an increase of 7.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption recorded a abrupt descent. Global consumption peaked at $1.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of derivatives of hydrocarbons consumption was Kuwait (32K tons), accounting for 27% of total volume. Moreover, derivatives of hydrocarbons consumption in Kuwait exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (15K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Japan (14K tons), with an 11% share.

In Kuwait, derivatives of hydrocarbons consumption declined by an average annual rate of -28.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+4.6% per year) and Japan (+3.4% per year).

In value terms, the largest derivatives of hydrocarbons markets worldwide were Japan ($55M), India ($44M) and Germany ($39M), with a combined 37% share of the global market. Kuwait, the United States, South Korea, Brazil, Spain, Australia, Italy, Turkey and Algeria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 42%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Algeria, with a CAGR of +17.3%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of derivatives of hydrocarbons per capita consumption was registered in Kuwait (7,397 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Australia (134 kg per 1000 persons), Spain (113 kg per 1000 persons) and Algeria (110 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of derivatives of hydrocarbons was estimated at 15 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the derivatives of hydrocarbons per capita consumption in Kuwait totaled -30.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Australia (-1.9% per year) and Spain (+0.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Derivatives of Hydrocarbons other than Containing Only Sulpho-, Nitro-, or Nitroso Groups

In 2022, global production of derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups amounted to 1.3M tons, almost unchanged from the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 4.9%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 1.4M tons. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, derivatives of hydrocarbons production dropped modestly to $1.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a slight descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the production volume increased by 35% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $2B. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

Kuwait (1.2M tons) remains the largest derivatives of hydrocarbons producing country worldwide, accounting for 93% of total volume. Moreover, derivatives of hydrocarbons production in Kuwait exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (66K tons), more than tenfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Kuwait stood at +2.3%.

Imports

World Imports of Derivatives of Hydrocarbons other than Containing Only Sulpho-, Nitro-, or Nitroso Groups

In 2022, approx. 106K tons of derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups were imported worldwide; with an increase of 3.2% compared with the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 20%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, derivatives of hydrocarbons imports skyrocketed to $420M in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +40.5% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 40%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, India (35K tons) represented the major importer of derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups, creating 33% of total imports. Japan (14K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 13% share, followed by China (6.5%), Spain (5.9%) and Brazil (5%). The following importers - Turkey (4.3K tons), Germany (3.6K tons), Australia (3.5K tons), Belgium (3.3K tons), South Korea (2.6K tons), the United States (2.2K tons) and Italy (2.2K tons) - together made up 20% of total imports.

India was also the fastest-growing in terms of the derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups imports, with a CAGR of +15.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, China (+10.3%), Belgium (+10.1%), Turkey (+10.0%), South Korea (+8.9%), Japan (+3.2%) and Spain (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. The United States, Italy, Brazil and Australia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-5.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. India (+23 p.p.), China (+3.3 p.p.), Turkey (+2 p.p.) and Belgium (+1.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Brazil and Germany saw its share reduced by -1.9% and -4.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($111M), Japan ($62M) and South Korea ($31M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 48% share of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, India, with a CAGR of +14.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average derivatives of hydrocarbons import price amounted to $3,965 per ton, with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 17%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $4,007 per ton in 2012; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($11,947 per ton), while Turkey ($2,375 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan (+7.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Derivatives of Hydrocarbons other than Containing Only Sulpho-, Nitro-, or Nitroso Groups

In 2022, global derivatives of hydrocarbons exports stood at 1.3M tons, stabilizing at 2021. In general, exports enjoyed a significant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 1,115% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, derivatives of hydrocarbons exports rose slightly to $1.4B in 2022. Overall, exports continue to indicate buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 373%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Kuwait prevails in exports structure, reaching 1.2M tons, which was near 91% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by China (71K tons), mixing up a 5.4% share of total exports. India (21K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

Kuwait was also the fastest-growing in terms of the derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups exports, with a CAGR of +42.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, China (+9.6%) and India (+3.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of Kuwait (+58 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of India (-12 p.p.) and China (-21.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Kuwait ($1B) remains the largest derivatives of hydrocarbons supplier worldwide, comprising 71% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($240M), with a 17% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Kuwait stood at +38.2%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (+8.8% per year) and India (+6.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average derivatives of hydrocarbons export price stood at $1,086 per ton in 2022, increasing by 3.2% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, continues to indicate a abrupt contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 155%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $3,242 per ton. From 2018 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($3,358 per ton), while Kuwait ($842 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform