Groundnut Oil Market

The global groundnut oil market is expected to see upward consumption trends over the next eight years, with forecasted increases in market volume and value. Key findings include China leading both consumption and imports, Brazil being the top exporter, and the market experiencing notable fluctuations in import and export prices. The article provides a detailed analysis of consumption, production, imports, and exports, highlighting key growth trends and market dynamics.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for groundnut oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6.4M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $11.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Groundnut Oil

In 2022, global consumption of groundnut oil surged to 5.7M tons, growing by 16% on 2021 figures. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a slight contraction. Global consumption peaked at 6.3M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global groundnut oil market revenue reached $8.6B in 2022, growing by 1.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, showed a perceptible descent. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $12.3B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (2.1M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of groundnut oil consumption, accounting for 37% of total volume. Moreover, groundnut oil consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, South Africa (965K tons), twofold. India (416K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.3% share.

In China, groundnut oil consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: South Africa (+1.0% per year) and India (-12.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($4.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($714M). It was followed by Nigeria.

In China, the groundnut oil market shrank by an average annual rate of -2.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (-14.5% per year) and Nigeria (+6.0% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of groundnut oil per capita consumption in 2022 were South Africa (16 kg per person), Guinea (9.6 kg per person) and Senegal (7.8 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Guinea (with a CAGR of +4.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Groundnut Oil

In 2022, approx. 5.7M tons of groundnut oil were produced worldwide; surging by 2.1% compared with 2021. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a slight contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 4.9% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 6.3M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, groundnut oil production expanded modestly to $8.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a perceptible shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 17% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $13.4B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (1.9M tons), South Africa (965K tons) and India (495K tons), with a combined 59% share of global production. Nigeria, Myanmar, Brazil, Sudan, Senegal, Guinea, the United States and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +14.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Groundnut Oil

After five years of growth, supplies from abroad of groundnut oil decreased by -11.3% to 382K tons in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 16% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 431K tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, groundnut oil imports shrank to $779M in 2022. Overall, imports, however, recorded strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 50% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $854M in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Imports By Country

China prevails in imports structure, recording 231K tons, which was approx. 60% of total imports in 2022. Italy (36K tons) took a 9.6% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by the United States (7%) and the Netherlands (4.6%). The following importers - Hong Kong SAR (14K tons), Belgium (14K tons) and France (11K tons) - together made up 10% of total imports.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the groundnut oil imports, with a CAGR of +14.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the Netherlands (+12.1%), the United States (+12.1%), Hong Kong SAR (+5.0%) and Italy (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Belgium (-1.6%) and France (-8.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+28 p.p.), the United States (+2.6 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+1.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Belgium (-4.7 p.p.), Italy (-6.9 p.p.) and France (-10.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($441M) constitutes the largest market for imported groundnut oil worldwide, comprising 57% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($69M), with an 8.9% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 7% share.

In China, groundnut oil imports increased at an average annual rate of +11.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (-0.6% per year) and the United States (+13.0% per year).

Imports By Type

In 2022, crude groundnut oil (341K tons) was the key type of groundnut oil, mixing up 77% of total imports. It was distantly followed by refined groundnut oil (100K tons), generating a 23% share of total imports.

Crude groundnut oil was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +8.9% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, refined groundnut oil (+7.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Crude groundnut oil (+1.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while refined groundnut oil saw its share reduced by -1.7% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, crude groundnut oil ($658M) constitutes the largest type of groundnut oil imported worldwide, comprising 84% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by refined groundnut oil ($128M), with a 16% share of global imports.

For crude groundnut oil, imports expanded at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average groundnut oil import price amounted to $2,038 per ton, picking up by 2.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a slight decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 30%. Global import price peaked at $2,282 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was crude groundnut oil ($1,928 per ton), while the price for refined groundnut oil stood at $1,279 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by crude groundnut oil (-1.7%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average groundnut oil import price amounted to $2,038 per ton, surging by 2.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a slight curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the average import price increased by 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $2,282 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Hong Kong SAR ($2,393 per ton) and France ($2,110 per ton), while Italy ($1,894 per ton) and China ($1,910 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+0.9%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Groundnut Oil

After four years of growth, overseas shipments of groundnut oil decreased by -65.2% to 385K tons in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw prominent growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 194%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 1.1M tons, and then contracted significantly in the following year.

In value terms, groundnut oil exports contracted markedly to $710M in 2022. In general, exports, however, enjoyed a strong expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 68% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $938M in 2021, and then shrank significantly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Brazil was the key exporter of groundnut oil in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 152K tons, which was approx. 40% of total exports in 2022. India (79K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 21% share, followed by Argentina (11%), Iraq (7.2%) and Nicaragua (5.7%). Senegal (14K tons) and China (11K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Iraq (with a CAGR of +111.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($275M), India ($158M) and Argentina ($79M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 72% share of global exports. Nicaragua, China, Senegal and Iraq lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 14%.

Among the main exporting countries, Iraq, with a CAGR of +75.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Crude groundnut oil was the largest exported product with an export of about 328K tons, which resulted at 85% of total exports. It was distantly followed by refined groundnut oil (56K tons), comprising a 15% share of total exports.

Crude groundnut oil was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +9.3% from 2012 to 2022. Refined groundnut oil experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of crude groundnut oil increased by +16 percentage points.

In value terms, crude groundnut oil ($570M) remains the largest type of groundnut oil supplied worldwide, comprising 80% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by refined groundnut oil ($140M), with a 20% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of crude groundnut oil exports amounted to +7.2%.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average groundnut oil export price amounted to $1,846 per ton, jumping by 118% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded a mild decline. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $2,240 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was refined groundnut oil ($2,491 per ton), while the average price for exports of crude groundnut oil totaled $1,737 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by refined groundnut oil (-0.1%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average groundnut oil export price amounted to $1,846 per ton, jumping by 118% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed a mild slump. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $2,240 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($2,493 per ton), while Iraq ($255 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Senegal (-0.6%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform