Lard Market

The global lard market is projected to experience growth in both consumption and value terms over the period from 2022 to 2030, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for volume and +3.6% for value. Despite a slight decline in 2022, consumption has shown a relatively flat trend pattern, with China leading in both consumption and production. Import and export trends also exhibit fluctuations, with notable growth rates in certain countries. The average import and export prices have seen moderate increases over the last decade, with some countries experiencing higher rates of growth. Overall, the lard market is expected to see continued growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for lard worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6.6M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lard

In 2022, after three years of decline, there was growth in consumption of lard, when its volume increased by 0.5% to 5.9M tons. Overall, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 6.5M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global lard market size contracted slightly to $8B in 2022, remaining constant against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a noticeable descent. Global consumption peaked at $10.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of lard consumption was China (1.9M tons), comprising approx. 32% of total volume. Moreover, lard consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Brazil (536K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Germany (532K tons), with a 9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled -1.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+2.0% per year) and Germany (-1.0% per year).

In value terms, China ($3.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Russia ($992M). It was followed by Brazil.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled -5.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+5.1% per year) and Brazil (+0.3% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of lard per capita consumption in 2022 were Hungary (10 kg per person), Belgium (9.7 kg per person) and Romania (6.8 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Romania (with a CAGR of +7.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Lard

In 2022, global lard production declined modestly to 6M tons, remaining stable against 2021 figures. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 5.1%. Global production peaked at 6.6M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, lard production fell slightly to $6.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a abrupt decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 61% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $13.6B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (1.9M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of lard production, accounting for 32% of total volume. Moreover, lard production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (559K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Brazil (538K tons), with a 9% share.

In China, lard production shrank by an average annual rate of -1.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-1.2% per year) and Brazil (+1.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Lard

After two years of growth, overseas purchases of lard decreased by -1.2% to 175K tons in 2022. Overall, imports saw a slight decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when imports increased by 30%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 240K tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, lard imports skyrocketed to $247M in 2022. In general, total imports indicated mild growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +103.3% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 36% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

Spain (30K tons) and Slovakia (29K tons) represented roughly 34% of total imports in 2022. The Netherlands (15K tons) ranks next in terms of the total imports with an 8.8% share, followed by the United States (8.4%), France (7.6%), Belgium (6.1%) and the UK (4.7%). Italy (7.7K tons), Germany (7.3K tons), Hungary (5.3K tons), Mexico (4.5K tons), Switzerland (4.4K tons) and the Czech Republic (4.2K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Switzerland (with a CAGR of +34.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($42M), Slovakia ($23M) and the Netherlands ($21M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 35% of global imports. France, the UK, the United States, Belgium, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Hungary, Switzerland and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 50%.

Switzerland, with a CAGR of +38.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average lard import price stood at $1,415 per ton in 2022, rising by 27% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, lard import price increased by +95.1% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 35% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($2,294 per ton), while Slovakia ($789 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (+6.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Lard

Global lard exports fell remarkably to 211K tons in 2022, with a decrease of -24.3% against the year before. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 38%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 279K tons, and then declined rapidly in the following year.

In value terms, lard exports contracted to $307M in 2022. In general, exports, however, posted measured growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 87% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $351M, and then reduced in the following year.

Exports By Country

Germany (34K tons), Belgium (32K tons), Italy (27K tons), the United States (27K tons), Spain (20K tons), Canada (17K tons), the Netherlands (12K tons) and France (12K tons) represented roughly 86% of total exports in 2022.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +11.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lard supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($49M), Italy ($44M) and the United States ($44M), with a combined 44% share of global exports.

Italy, with a CAGR of +13.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average lard export price stood at $1,453 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, lard export price increased by +79.7% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 36% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,794 per ton), while Canada ($1,071 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+6.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform