Linseed Oil Market

The global linseed oil market is projected to show a positive growth trend, with increasing consumption and production volumes. The market is expected to reach a volume of 1.1M tons and a value of $3.5B by the end of 2030. China is the largest consumer of linseed oil, while Belgium is the key exporting country. Export prices have seen a significant increase, with the average price per ton reaching $1,913 in 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for linseed oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.1M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Linseed Oil

In 2022, consumption of linseed oil increased by 2% to 831K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 904K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global linseed oil market value rose slightly to $2.1B in 2022, with an increase of 4.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $2.9B. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of linseed oil consumption was China (251K tons), accounting for 30% of total volume. Moreover, linseed oil consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (77K tons), threefold. Germany (63K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +3.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+3.5% per year) and Germany (+2.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($728M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Ethiopia ($154M). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the linseed oil market expanded at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Ethiopia (+0.3% per year) and the United States (+9.5% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of linseed oil per capita consumption in 2022 were Norway (5.6 kg per person), Ireland (3.4 kg per person) and Belgium (2.7 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Norway (with a CAGR of +36.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Linseed Oil

In 2022, production of linseed oil was finally on the rise to reach 767K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 7% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 820K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, linseed oil production totaled $1.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 39%. Global production peaked at $1.8B in 2018; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (226K tons), Belgium (120K tons) and the United States (74K tons), together comprising 55% of global production. Germany, India, Russia, Ethiopia, the UK, Kazakhstan, the Dominican Republic, Canada, Poland and Afghanistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Afghanistan (with a CAGR of +33.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Linseed Oil

In 2022, approx. 271K tons of linseed oil were imported worldwide; falling by -3.2% against 2021 figures. Overall, imports recorded a slight curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 327K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, linseed oil imports expanded sharply to $455M in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +62.4% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 40%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Gambia (51K tons), distantly followed by Norway (29K tons), China (27K tons), Germany (27K tons), the Netherlands (22K tons) and Ireland (17K tons) were the main importers of linseed oil, together generating 64% of total imports. The following importers - Japan (8.8K tons), Nigeria (8.4K tons), the United States (7.2K tons), France (7.1K tons), Belgium (7.1K tons), Spain (4.8K tons) and the UK (4.7K tons) - together made up 18% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Norway (with a CAGR of +64.1%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest linseed oil importing markets worldwide were Germany ($54M), Norway ($50M) and the Netherlands ($46M), together accounting for 33% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, Norway, with a CAGR of +57.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified was the major type of linseed oil in the world, with the volume of imports finishing at 155K tons, which was near 58% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified (114K tons), achieving a 42% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified (with a CAGR of -0.5%).

In value terms, vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($247M) and vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified ($209M) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022.

Vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified, with a CAGR of +2.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main imported products over the period under review.

Import Prices By Type

The average linseed oil import price stood at $1,681 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, linseed oil import price increased by +77.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 39%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified ($1,833 per ton), while the price for vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified stood at $1,589 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (+3.1%).

Import Prices By Country

The average linseed oil import price stood at $1,681 per ton in 2022, increasing by 14% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, linseed oil import price increased by +77.7% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 39% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($3,859 per ton), while Nigeria ($125 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+8.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Linseed Oil

In 2022, shipments abroad of linseed oil increased by 5.4% to 207K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. In general, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 17%. The global exports peaked at 218K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, linseed oil exports soared to $396M in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +73.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Belgium represented the key exporting country with an export of about 96K tons, which resulted at 46% of total exports. Russia (34K tons) took a 17% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the UK (8.3%), Kazakhstan (7%) and Germany (5%). Spain (5.9K tons), Turkey (5.3K tons) and the United States (3.9K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of linseed oil. At the same time, Russia (+64.8%), Kazakhstan (+62.8%), the UK (+33.9%), Turkey (+12.9%) and Spain (+9.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Russia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +64.8% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Germany (-7.2%) and the United States (-21.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Russia (+17 p.p.), the UK (+7.8 p.p.), Kazakhstan (+6.9 p.p.), Belgium (+2.3 p.p.), Turkey (+1.8 p.p.) and Spain (+1.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Germany and the United States saw its share reduced by -6.1% and -20.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, Belgium ($180M) remains the largest linseed oil supplier worldwide, comprising 45% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Russia ($52M), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by the UK, with a 7.3% share.

In Belgium, linseed oil exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+52.4% per year) and the UK (+25.1% per year).

Exports By Type

In 2022, vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified (126K tons) was the largest type of linseed oil, making up 61% of total exports. It was distantly followed by vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (80K tons), making up a 39% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exported products, was attained by vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified (with a CAGR of +1.2%).

In value terms, the largest types of exported linseed oil were vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified ($221M) and vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($174M).

Vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified, with a CAGR of +4.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exported products over the period under review.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average linseed oil export price amounted to $1,913 per ton, increasing by 9.7% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, linseed oil export price increased by +83.0% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 39%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($2,181 per ton), while the average price for exports of vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified totaled $1,749 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (+3.6%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average linseed oil export price amounted to $1,913 per ton, growing by 9.7% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, linseed oil export price increased by +83.0% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 39% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($2,810 per ton), while Kazakhstan ($1,238 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+10.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform