Margarine And Shortening Market

The article provides an in-depth analysis of the global market for margarine and shortening, highlighting trends in consumption, production, imports, and exports. It forecasts an increase in market volume and value over the next eight years, with a slight growth in performance. The United States emerges as the largest consumer and producer of margarine and shortening, while China leads in imports. The article also analyzes trends in consumption per capita and average prices of margarine and shortening products.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for margarine and shortening worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 19M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $41.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Margarine And Shortening

In 2022, approx. 16M tons of margarine and shortening were consumed worldwide; approximately equating the year before. In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 19M tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The global margarine and shortening market value rose notably to $34.2B in 2022, growing by 11% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $37.1B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The United States (4M tons) remains the largest margarine and shortening consuming country worldwide, accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, margarine and shortening consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Pakistan (1.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by China (1.1M tons), with a 6.5% share.

In the United States, margarine and shortening consumption decreased by an average annual rate of -5.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Pakistan (+1.0% per year) and China (+11.9% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($14.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($2B). It was followed by Pakistan.

In the United States, the margarine and shortening market shrank by an average annual rate of -2.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Japan (-2.1% per year) and Pakistan (-1.1% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of margarine and shortening per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (12 kg per person), Malaysia (8.1 kg per person) and Pakistan (8 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Mexico (with a CAGR of +19.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Margarine And Shortening

In 2022, approx. 17M tons of margarine and shortening were produced worldwide; flattening at 2021 figures. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 3.6%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 19M tons. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, margarine and shortening production totaled $31.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a mild slump. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $37.7B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The United States (4M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of margarine and shortening production, accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, margarine and shortening production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Pakistan (1.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Indonesia (1.6M tons), with a 9.6% share.

In the United States, margarine and shortening production decreased by an average annual rate of -5.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Pakistan (+1.0% per year) and Indonesia (+1.8% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Margarine And Shortening

In 2022, global margarine and shortening imports expanded markedly to 4.6M tons, picking up by 5.5% compared with the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 11%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, margarine and shortening imports skyrocketed to $8.7B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +64.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China was the largest importer of margarine and shortening in the world, with the volume of imports amounting to 1.1M tons, which was approx. 23% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by France (214K tons), creating a 4.6% share of total imports. The following importers - the Netherlands (197K tons), Germany (187K tons), the UK (143K tons), the United States (141K tons), Poland (122K tons), Chile (106K tons), Uzbekistan (83K tons), Iraq (81K tons), Kazakhstan (81K tons) and Canada (72K tons) - together made up 26% of total imports.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +11.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Uzbekistan (+25.7%), Kazakhstan (+11.9%), the Netherlands (+9.8%), the UK (+5.5%) and the United States (+3.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Uzbekistan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +25.7% from 2012-2022. Poland, Canada and Iraq experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-1.5%), France (-2.1%) and Chile (-8.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+13 p.p.), the Netherlands (+2 p.p.) and Uzbekistan (+1.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Germany, France and Chile saw its share reduced by -2.4%, -3.1% and -4.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($1.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported margarine and shortening worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by France ($497M), with a 5.7% share of global imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 4.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +14.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (+0.7% per year) and the Netherlands (+7.2% per year).

Imports By Type

In 2022, liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats (3.5M tons) represented the main type of margarine and shortening, achieving 74% of total imports. It was distantly followed by non-liquid margarine (1.2M tons), constituting a 26% share of total imports.

Liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +4.4% from 2012 to 2022. Non-liquid margarine experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats (+8.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while non-liquid margarine saw its share reduced by -8.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats ($6.7B) constitutes the largest type of margarine and shortening imported worldwide, comprising 76% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by non-liquid margarine ($2.1B), with a 24% share of global imports.

For liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats, imports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average margarine and shortening import price amounted to $1,877 per ton, growing by 16% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats ($1,931 per ton), while the price for non-liquid margarine amounted to $1,722 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats (+1.3%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average margarine and shortening import price amounted to $1,877 per ton, with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($2,700 per ton), while Iraq ($1,192 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+7.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Margarine And Shortening

Global margarine and shortening exports amounted to 5.2M tons in 2022, almost unchanged from 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, margarine and shortening exports soared to $9.6B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +74.0% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 40%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Indonesia represented the key exporter of margarine and shortening in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 1.6M tons, which was approx. 31% of total exports in 2022. Belgium (453K tons) took an 8.6% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (7.3%), Malaysia (5.5%), Germany (5.5%) and Russia (5.1%). The following exporters - Poland (213K tons), the United States (208K tons), Sweden (143K tons), Turkey (142K tons), Spain (137K tons) and Canada (84K tons) - together made up 18% of total exports.

Exports from Indonesia increased at an average annual rate of +7.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Spain (+8.1%), Russia (+7.9%), Poland (+4.8%), Turkey (+2.7%), Malaysia (+1.7%), Canada (+1.6%), Sweden (+1.4%) and Germany (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.1% from 2012-2022. The Netherlands, the United States and Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Indonesia (+11 p.p.) and Russia (+1.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the Netherlands and Belgium saw its share reduced by -2% and -3% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Indonesia ($2.2B) remains the largest margarine and shortening supplier worldwide, comprising 23% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Belgium ($941M), with a 9.8% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 9.2% share.

In Indonesia, margarine and shortening exports increased at an average annual rate of +10.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Belgium (+2.5% per year) and the Netherlands (+3.2% per year).

Exports By Type

In 2022, liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats (4M tons) represented the largest type of margarine and shortening, generating 77% of total exports. It was distantly followed by non-liquid margarine (1.2M tons), making up a 23% share of total exports.

Liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022. Non-liquid margarine experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats (+7.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while non-liquid margarine saw its share reduced by -7.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats ($7.4B) remains the largest type of margarine and shortening supplied worldwide, comprising 77% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by non-liquid margarine ($2.2B), with a 23% share of global exports.

For liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats, exports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average margarine and shortening export price amounted to $1,831 per ton, growing by 16% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 19%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was liquid margarine and edible mixtures of animal or vegetable fats ($1,838 per ton), while the average price for exports of non-liquid margarine stood at $1,807 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by non-liquid margarine (+1.7%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average margarine and shortening export price amounted to $1,831 per ton, rising by 16% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 19%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Sweden ($2,768 per ton), while Russia ($1,212 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden (+3.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform