Modified Starches Market

The global modified starches market is projected to experience growth in consumption, production, imports, and exports, with key players like China, the United States, and Thailand leading the way. Market volumes and values are forecasted to increase over the next eight years, with notable fluctuations in consumption patterns seen in various countries. Average annual growth rates and price trends are analyzed for key market players.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for modified starches worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 20M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $30.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Dextrins And Other Modified Starches

After two years of growth, consumption of dextrins and other modified starches decreased by -2.2% to 18M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 6.5%. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 19M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global modified starches market revenue shrank modestly to $23.2B in 2022, which is down by -2.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $23.9B, and then contracted in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (3.2M tons) remains the largest modified starches consuming country worldwide, accounting for 18% of total volume. Moreover, modified starches consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (1.5M tons), twofold. India (1.2M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +2.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-1.6% per year) and India (+1.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($4.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($1.8B). It was followed by Pakistan.

In China, the modified starches market increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+1.1% per year) and Pakistan (-1.9% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of modified starches per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (28 kg per person), followed by the United States (4.4 kg per person), Japan (4.2 kg per person) and Germany (3.9 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of modified starches was estimated at 2.3 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the modified starches per capita consumption in the Netherlands totaled +3.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the United States (-2.2% per year) and Japan (-2.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Dextrins And Other Modified Starches

After two years of growth, production of dextrins and other modified starches decreased by -2.6% to 18M tons in 2022. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 4.9%. Global production peaked at 19M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, modified starches production fell to $22.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 11% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $23.3B, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (2.8M tons), the United States (1.6M tons) and Thailand (1.3M tons), together comprising 32% of global production. India, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Brazil, Russia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, France, Mexico and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +8.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Dextrins And Other Modified Starches

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in purchases abroad of dextrins and other modified starches, which increased by 2% to 4.2M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 8%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, modified starches imports skyrocketed to $5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the three major importers of dextrins and other modified starches, namely China, Japan and Germany, represented more than third of total import. The United States (197K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Indonesia (192K tons). All these countries together took approx. 9.4% share of total imports. South Korea (146K tons), the Netherlands (139K tons), France (117K tons), Canada (115K tons), the UK (110K tons), Sweden (103K tons), Poland (92K tons) and Italy (83K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +10.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest modified starches importing markets worldwide were China ($583M), Germany ($439M) and Japan ($430M), together comprising 29% of global imports. The United States, Indonesia, France, the Netherlands, the UK, Canada, South Korea, Italy, Poland and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

The United States, with a CAGR of +10.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average modified starches import price amounted to $1,205 per ton, with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,652 per ton), while Japan ($943 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Dextrins And Other Modified Starches

In 2022, shipments abroad of dextrins and other modified starches increased by 0.1% to 3.8M tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 9.9%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, modified starches exports surged to $4.2B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Thailand represented the key exporting country with an export of about 1.1M tons, which reached 30% of total exports. The Netherlands (404K tons) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the United States (8.8%), France (8.5%), Germany (7.9%) and Vietnam (6.2%). China (134K tons), Italy (134K tons), Belgium (126K tons), India (72K tons), Brazil (65K tons), Sweden (63K tons) and Turkey (61K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to modified starches exports from Thailand stood at +2.8%. At the same time, Turkey (+31.7%), Belgium (+25.3%), Vietnam (+11.8%), India (+7.3%), Brazil (+6.5%), Sweden (+4.6%) and China (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Turkey emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +31.7% from 2012-2022. Italy and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-2.1%), France (-2.5%) and the United States (-2.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Vietnam (+3.8 p.p.), Thailand (+3.5 p.p.) and Belgium (+2.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of France (-4.3 p.p.), the United States (-4.7 p.p.) and the Netherlands (-4.7 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Thailand ($946M), the Netherlands ($501M) and the United States ($500M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 46% of global exports. Germany, France, China, Vietnam, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Brazil, India and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

Among the main exporting countries, Belgium, with a CAGR of +30.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average modified starches export price stood at $1,125 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($1,538 per ton), while Vietnam ($688 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+6.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform