Non-Propelled Vehicle Market

The article analyzes the global non-propelled vehicle market, projecting a positive consumption trend with a CAGR of +1.0% in volume and +3.2% in value from 2022 to 2030. It provides insights into consumption patterns, production volumes, import/export dynamics, and key players in the market. The analysis covers top consuming countries, market value, production trends, import/export prices, and growth rates over the past decade.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for non-propelled vehicle worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 172M units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $14B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Vehicles Not Mechanically Propelled

Global non-propelled vehicle consumption rose markedly to 159M units in 2022, growing by 8.7% on the year before. In general, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 168M units in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global non-propelled vehicle market value expanded rapidly to $10.9B in 2022, surging by 6.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, showed a mild reduction. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $12.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (30M units), the United States (25M units) and India (12M units), together comprising 42% of global consumption. Japan, Russia, Brazil, Bangladesh, the UK, Mexico, Canada, the Philippines, Australia and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +34.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest non-propelled vehicle markets worldwide were Bangladesh ($1.7B), Russia ($964M) and the United States ($866M), with a combined 32% share of the global market. India, China, Brazil, Japan, the UK, Canada, Mexico, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the Philippines, with a CAGR of +33.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of non-propelled vehicle per capita consumption in 2022 were Australia (125 units per 1000 persons), Canada (91 units per 1000 persons) and the United States (74 units per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +32.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Vehicles Not Mechanically Propelled

In 2022, global non-propelled vehicle production was estimated at 165M units, picking up by 1.8% against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 11%. Global production peaked at 176M units in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, non-propelled vehicle production stood at $11.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a mild curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $14B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (98M units) constituted the country with the largest volume of non-propelled vehicle production, accounting for 59% of total volume. Moreover, non-propelled vehicle production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (12M units), eightfold. Brazil (5.4M units) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.3% share.

In China, non-propelled vehicle production increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+1.2% per year) and Brazil (-1.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Vehicles Not Mechanically Propelled

In 2022, approx. 81M units of vehicles not mechanically propelled were imported worldwide; with an increase of 6.8% on 2021. In general, total imports indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +63.0% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 17%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, non-propelled vehicle imports expanded rapidly to $3.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +37.4% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (26M units) represented the major importer of vehicles not mechanically propelled, committing 32% of total imports. Japan (4.8M units) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 5.9% share, followed by Canada (4.6%). The Philippines (3.5M units), Australia (3.4M units), the UK (2.7M units), Mexico (2.4M units), Germany (2.4M units), Chile (1.9M units), the Netherlands (1.5M units), South Africa (1.4M units), France (1.4M units) and Saudi Arabia (1.3M units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to non-propelled vehicle imports into the United States stood at +6.6%. At the same time, the Philippines (+33.4%), South Africa (+5.8%), Canada (+5.5%), the UK (+5.2%), the Netherlands (+5.0%), Australia (+4.1%), Chile (+3.8%), Mexico (+2.6%) and Saudi Arabia (+2.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Philippines emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +33.4% from 2012-2022. Japan and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, France (-3.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+6.8 p.p.) and the Philippines (+4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while France and Japan saw its share reduced by -1.8% and -2.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($929M) constitutes the largest market for imported vehicles not mechanically propelled worldwide, comprising 24% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($240M), with a 6.1% share of global imports. It was followed by Canada, with a 6.1% share.

In the United States, non-propelled vehicle imports expanded at an average annual rate of +9.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+5.2% per year) and Canada (+7.6% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average non-propelled vehicle import price amounted to $48 per unit, leveling off at the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 14%. Global import price peaked at $49 per unit in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($120 per unit), while the Philippines ($2.6 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+7.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Vehicles Not Mechanically Propelled

In 2022, shipments abroad of vehicles not mechanically propelled decreased by -5.1% to 87M units for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. In general, total exports indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +53.7% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 92M units in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, non-propelled vehicle exports expanded remarkably to $4.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +68.6% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

China prevails in exports structure, resulting at 68M units, which was approx. 78% of total exports in 2022. The following exporters - South Korea (3M units), Germany (2.4M units), Mexico (1.6M units) and the United States (1.4M units) - together made up 9.7% of total exports.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, South Korea (+44.8%), Mexico (+6.8%), Germany (+5.4%) and the United States (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Korea emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +44.8% from 2012-2022. South Korea (+3.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while China saw its share reduced by -5.3% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($2.2B) remains the largest non-propelled vehicle supplier worldwide, comprising 52% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($390M), with a 9.1% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with an 8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at +6.8%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the United States (+6.2% per year) and Germany (+1.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average non-propelled vehicle export price stood at $49 per unit in 2022, with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($274 per unit), while South Korea ($11 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform