Non-Wheat Cereal Pellets Market

The global market for non-wheat cereal pellets is expected to continue growing over the next eight years, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% in consumption volume and +2.3% in market value. Consumption increased by 1.9% in 2022 compared to the previous year, with notable fluctuations in trend patterns. The United Arab Emirates, China, and Bangladesh were among the top consuming countries, while Ireland, Germany, and Belgium were major exporters. Import prices varied by country, with Nigeria having the highest price and the Netherlands having the lowest. Overall, the market is projected to show continued growth in consumption, production, imports, and exports in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cereal pellets (excluding wheat) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.4M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $6.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cereal Pellets (Excluding Wheat)

In 2022, approx. 2.6M tons of cereal pellets (excluding wheat) were consumed worldwide; increasing by 1.9% against 2021 figures. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -8.3% against 2020 indices. Global consumption peaked at 2.9M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global non-wheat cereal pellets market revenue skyrocketed to $5.1B in 2022, growing by 151% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption posted a prominent expansion. As a result, consumption attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (274K tons), the United States (197K tons) and India (144K tons), with a combined 23% share of global consumption. Japan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Russia, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Spain and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +25.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($1.7B), China ($1.4B) and Bangladesh ($338M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 69% share of the global market.

The United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +25.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of non-wheat cereal pellets per capita consumption was registered in the United Arab Emirates (7.4 kg per person), followed by Spain (1.4 kg per person), Japan (0.9 kg per person) and Russia (0.6 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of non-wheat cereal pellets was estimated at 0.3 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the non-wheat cereal pellets per capita consumption in the United Arab Emirates totaled +23.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+6.0% per year) and Japan (+2.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Cereal Pellets (Excluding Wheat)

In 2022, the amount of cereal pellets (excluding wheat) produced worldwide rose to 2.5M tons, increasing by 4.6% compared with the previous year. In general, the total production indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -4.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 30%. Global production peaked at 2.6M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, non-wheat cereal pellets production expanded significantly to $2.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production showed a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 48%. Global production peaked at $2.4B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (274K tons), the United States (202K tons) and India (147K tons), together comprising 25% of global production. Japan, Pakistan, Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, Germany, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico and Ireland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +17.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Cereal Pellets (Excluding Wheat)

In 2022, overseas purchases of cereal pellets (excluding wheat) decreased by -13.9% to 295K tons, falling for the third year in a row after three years of growth. Overall, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 47% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 424K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, non-wheat cereal pellets imports expanded slightly to $127M in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a notable expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 43%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the three major importers of cereal pellets (excluding wheat), namely the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands and Spain, represented more than half of total import. It was distantly followed by the Czech Republic (14K tons), constituting a 4.7% share of total imports. Portugal (11K tons), Slovakia (10K tons), Romania (8.6K tons), New Zealand (7.2K tons), Italy (6.6K tons), France (6.6K tons) and Nigeria (5K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by New Zealand (with a CAGR of +79.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($33M) constitutes the largest market for imported cereal pellets (excluding wheat) worldwide, comprising 26% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Spain ($17M), with a 13% share of global imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 12% share.

In the United Arab Emirates, non-wheat cereal pellets imports increased at an average annual rate of +28.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Spain (+5.8% per year) and the Netherlands (+7.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average non-wheat cereal pellets import price stood at $429 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.1%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 22% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($1,190 per ton), while the Netherlands ($264 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+7.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cereal Pellets (Excluding Wheat)

In 2022, the amount of cereal pellets (excluding wheat) exported worldwide expanded remarkably to 196K tons, with an increase of 8.4% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 37% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 292K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, non-wheat cereal pellets exports expanded rapidly to $71M in 2022. Overall, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 55%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $106M. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the four major exporters of cereal pellets (excluding wheat), namely Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium, represented more than two-thirds of total export. It was distantly followed by the United States (9.9K tons), comprising a 5.1% share of total exports. Spain (8.8K tons), France (8.3K tons), Sweden (6.6K tons) and the UK (3.1K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Sweden (with a CAGR of +139.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest non-wheat cereal pellets supplying countries worldwide were Ireland ($19M), the Netherlands ($11M) and Spain ($9.8M), together accounting for 55% of global exports. Belgium, Germany, the UK, the United States, France and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Sweden, with a CAGR of +124.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average non-wheat cereal pellets export price stood at $363 per ton in 2022, which is down by -2.9% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, recorded a modest increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the average export price increased by 21% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $374 per ton in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($1,518 per ton), while Germany ($201 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+12.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform