Palm Kernel Oil Market

The global palm kernel and babassu oil market is projected to experience steady growth in both volume and value from 2022 to 2030. The market is forecasted to expand with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% in volume and +5.7% in value over this time period. Consumption trends show fluctuations over the years, with Indonesia, Malaysia, and China being the top consuming countries. Indonesia also leads in production, while China, the United States, and Germany are key importers. The highest levels of per capita consumption are in Malaysia and Indonesia. Export prices have shown notable growth, with Colombia and Honduras among the top exporting countries. Overall, the market is expected to continue its growth trajectory in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for palm kernel and babassu oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 11M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $13.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Palm Kernel Oil

In 2022, global palm kernel oil consumption declined modestly to 8.1M tons, falling by -3.1% compared with the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 8.4M tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

The global palm kernel oil market revenue expanded to $8.8B in 2022, increasing by 4.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $9B. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Indonesia (3.2M tons), Malaysia (1.7M tons) and China (551K tons), together comprising 68% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +8.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest palm kernel oil markets worldwide were Indonesia ($2.6B), Malaysia ($1.5B) and China ($766M), with a combined 56% share of the global market. The United States, Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands, Russia, Nigeria and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +8.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of palm kernel oil per capita consumption was registered in Malaysia (52 kg per person), followed by Indonesia (12 kg per person), the Netherlands (9.4 kg per person) and Germany (3 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of palm kernel oil was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

In Malaysia, palm kernel oil per capita consumption decreased by an average annual rate of -2.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Indonesia (+6.9% per year) and the Netherlands (+5.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Palm Kernel Oil

In 2022, global production of palm kernel and babassu oil declined slightly to 8M tons, flattening at the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 8.2M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, palm kernel oil production totaled $6.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a pronounced downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 29%. Global production peaked at $9.5B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

Indonesia (4.6M tons) remains the largest palm kernel oil producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 57% of total volume. Moreover, palm kernel oil production in Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Malaysia (2.1M tons), twofold. Thailand (268K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Indonesia stood at +4.5%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Malaysia (-0.2% per year) and Thailand (+5.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Palm Kernel Oil

In 2022, the amount of palm kernel and babassu oil imported worldwide reduced to 2.7M tons, with a decrease of -14.2% against the previous year's figure. Overall, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 3.3M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, palm kernel oil imports expanded remarkably to $5B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +98.6% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 63%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (535K tons), followed by the United States (349K tons), Germany (280K tons), Malaysia (269K tons), Brazil (230K tons) and the Netherlands (192K tons) were the key importers of palm kernel and babassu oil, together constituting 68% of total imports. India (85K tons), Turkey (84K tons), Japan (76K tons), Russia (75K tons), Spain (59K tons), Belgium (46K tons) and Italy (45K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Belgium (with a CAGR of +8.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest palm kernel oil importing markets worldwide were China ($848M), the United States ($758M) and Germany ($519M), together accounting for 43% of global imports. Brazil, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Japan, Russia, Turkey, India, Belgium, Spain and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 42%.

Among the main importing countries, Belgium, with a CAGR of +13.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified was the major imported product with an import of around 1.9M tons, which amounted to 69% of total imports. It was distantly followed by vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified (855K tons), making up a 31% share of total imports.

Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022. vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified (-3.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified increased by +14 percentage points.

In value terms, vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($3.5B) constitutes the largest type of palm kernel and babassu oil imported worldwide, comprising 71% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified ($1.4B), with a 29% share of global imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified imports stood at +5.9%.

Import Prices By Type

The average palm kernel oil import price stood at $1,817 per ton in 2022, picking up by 33% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm kernel oil import price increased by +135.9% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 54%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($1,879 per ton), while the price for vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified stood at $1,680 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified (+4.1%).

Import Prices By Country

The average palm kernel oil import price stood at $1,817 per ton in 2022, rising by 33% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm kernel oil import price increased by +135.9% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($2,505 per ton), while Malaysia ($1,491 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Palm Kernel Oil

In 2022, overseas shipments of palm kernel and babassu oil decreased by -9.3% to 2.6M tons, falling for the third year in a row after three years of growth. In general, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 3.1M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, palm kernel oil exports expanded modestly to $4B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +87.6% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 57%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Indonesia was the largest exporter of palm kernel and babassu oil in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 1.3M tons, which was near 51% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Malaysia (655K tons), committing a 25% share of total exports. Thailand (112K tons), Colombia (78K tons), Papua New Guinea (72K tons), Guatemala (69K tons) and Honduras (40K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

Indonesia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of palm kernel and babassu oil. At the same time, Guatemala (+9.9%), Papua New Guinea (+7.4%), Colombia (+5.2%), Thailand (+4.7%) and Honduras (+2.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Guatemala emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.9% from 2012-2022. Malaysia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Guatemala (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Malaysia and Indonesia saw its share reduced by -3.1% and -6.2% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest palm kernel oil supplying countries worldwide were Indonesia ($2B), Malaysia ($1.1B) and Thailand ($175M), with a combined 81% share of global exports. Colombia, Guatemala, Papua New Guinea and Honduras lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 8.9%.

Guatemala, with a CAGR of +11.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified was the key type of palm kernel and babassu oil in the world, with the volume of exports finishing at 1.8M tons, which was approx. 68% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified (835K tons), creating a 32% share of total exports.

Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022. vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified (-2.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (+10 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified saw its share reduced by -10.5% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($2.8B) remains the largest type of palm kernel and babassu oil supplied worldwide, comprising 71% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified ($1.2B), with a 29% share of global exports.

For vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified, exports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average palm kernel oil export price amounted to $1,532 per ton, surging by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm kernel oil export price increased by +125.0% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 69% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($1,591 per ton), while the average price for exports of vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified amounted to $1,407 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (+3.6%).

Export Prices By Country

The average palm kernel oil export price stood at $1,532 per ton in 2022, growing by 13% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm kernel oil export price increased by +125.0% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 69% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Colombia ($1,916 per ton), while Honduras ($1,038 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Colombia (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform