Palm Oil Market

The global palm oil market is forecasted to grow with a CAGR of +4.0% in volume and +6.3% in value from 2022 to 2030, reaching 108M tons and $119.1B respectively. Indonesia dominates both production and consumption. Refined palm oil is the leading product type in exports with a CAGR of +3.3%. Prices have shown consistent growth with notable fluctuations over the years. Import prices have a moderately higher trend compared to export prices. Overall, the palm oil market is expected to see steady growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for palm oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 108M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $119.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Palm Oil

In 2022, global palm oil consumption fell modestly to 79M tons, which is down by -4.1% compared with the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 82M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global palm oil market size totaled $73.1B in 2022, rising by 5.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated measured growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +65.3% against 2016 indices. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

Indonesia (20M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of palm oil consumption, comprising approx. 26% of total volume. Moreover, palm oil consumption in Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (9.2M tons), twofold. Malaysia (7M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Indonesia amounted to +11.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+1.8% per year) and Malaysia (+3.7% per year).

In value terms, the largest palm oil markets worldwide were Indonesia ($13.2B), India ($10.1B) and China ($5.4B), with a combined 39% share of the global market. Malaysia, Pakistan, the Netherlands, the United States, Italy, Spain, Thailand, Bangladesh, Nigeria and Colombia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Spain, with a CAGR of +9.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of palm oil per capita consumption in 2022 were Malaysia (212 kg per person), the Netherlands (123 kg per person) and Indonesia (73 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +9.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Palm Oil

In 2022, global palm oil production contracted modestly to 80M tons, remaining stable against the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 18% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 82M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, palm oil production expanded modestly to $52.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $55.1B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

Indonesia (45M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of palm oil production, comprising approx. 57% of total volume. Moreover, palm oil production in Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Malaysia (19M tons), twofold. Thailand (2.8M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.5% share.

In Indonesia, palm oil production expanded at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Malaysia (+0.3% per year) and Thailand (+4.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Palm Oil

In 2022, the amount of palm oil imported worldwide shrank to 45M tons, waning by -5.7% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 12% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 50M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, palm oil imports expanded sharply to $57.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +86.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 50% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, India (9.2M tons), distantly followed by China (4.9M tons) and Pakistan (2.8M tons) represented the key importers of palm oil, together mixing up 38% of total imports. The following importers - the United States (1.7M tons), the Netherlands (1.6M tons), Bangladesh (1.4M tons), Italy (1.4M tons), Malaysia (1.2M tons), Spain (1.1M tons), Turkey (1M tons), the Philippines (1M tons), Russia (1M tons) and Germany (0.8M tons) - together made up 27% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +41.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($11.7B) constitutes the largest market for imported palm oil worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($5.8B), with a 10% share of global imports. It was followed by Pakistan, with a 6.7% share.

In India, palm oil imports increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (-1.1% per year) and Pakistan (+6.0% per year).

Imports By Type

Refined palm oil was the key type of palm oil in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 32M tons, which was approx. 71% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by crude palm oil (13M tons), committing a 29% share of total imports.

Refined palm oil was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022. crude palm oil (-1.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Refined palm oil (+9.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while crude palm oil saw its share reduced by -9.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, refined palm oil ($41.9B) constitutes the largest type of palm oil imported worldwide, comprising 72% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by crude palm oil ($16.7B), with a 28% share of global imports.

For refined palm oil, imports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

The average palm oil import price stood at $1,273 per ton in 2022, picking up by 19% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm oil import price increased by +109.7% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 48% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was refined palm oil ($1,291 per ton), while the price for crude palm oil amounted to $1,265 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by crude palm oil (+2.0%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average palm oil import price amounted to $1,273 per ton, growing by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm oil import price increased by +109.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 48%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,458 per ton), while Bangladesh ($848 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+3.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Palm Oil

In 2022, shipments abroad of palm oil decreased by -0.2% to 46M tons, falling for the third year in a row after three years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 51M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, palm oil exports rose sharply to $54.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +97.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 52%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Indonesia was the key exporting country with an export of around 25M tons, which recorded 54% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Malaysia (13M tons), comprising a 29% share of total exports. The following exporters - Thailand (987K tons), the Netherlands (915K tons), Guatemala (813K tons) and Papua New Guinea (725K tons) - each finished at a 7.4% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +12.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest palm oil supplying countries worldwide were Indonesia ($27.8B), Malaysia ($17B) and the Netherlands ($1.4B), with a combined 84% share of global exports. Thailand, Guatemala and Papua New Guinea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 5.2%.

Thailand, with a CAGR of +15.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Refined palm oil was the main exported product with an export of around 35M tons, which accounted for 75% of total exports. It was distantly followed by crude palm oil (11M tons), generating a 25% share of total exports.

Refined palm oil was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022. crude palm oil (-2.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Refined palm oil (+11 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while crude palm oil saw its share reduced by -11.1% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, refined palm oil ($42B) remains the largest type of palm oil supplied worldwide, comprising 77% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by crude palm oil ($12.7B), with a 23% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of refined palm oil exports totaled +5.2%.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average palm oil export price amounted to $1,183 per ton, rising by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm oil export price increased by +115.5% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was refined palm oil ($1,212 per ton), while the average price for exports of crude palm oil totaled $1,104 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by refined palm oil (+1.9%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average palm oil export price amounted to $1,183 per ton, rising by 12% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated modest growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, palm oil export price increased by +115.5% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,570 per ton), while Papua New Guinea ($885 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+2.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform