Polyethylene in Primary Forms Market

The article discusses the current trends and future projections of the global polyethylene market in primary forms. It highlights the increasing demand for polyethylene worldwide, with consumption expected to reach 90M tons and market value to reach $137B by the end of 2030. The consumption, production, imports, and exports of polyethylene in primary forms are analyzed, with key market players and countries identified. The report provides insights into consumption patterns, market performance, and growth rates over the past decade, giving a comprehensive overview of the global polyethylene market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for polyethylene in primary forms worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 90M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $137B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Polyethylene in Primary Forms

Global polyethylene in primary forms consumption expanded notably to 85M tons in 2022, growing by 7.7% on the year before. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global polyethylene in primary forms market revenue rose markedly to $108.7B in 2022, increasing by 8.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $114.6B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (14M tons), the United States (7.8M tons) and India (7.2M tons), together accounting for 34% of global consumption. Japan, Italy, Brazil, Russia, Nigeria, Mexico, Turkey, Spain, the United Arab Emirates and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +25.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest polyethylene in primary forms markets worldwide were China ($17.2B), the United States ($9B) and India ($7.3B), together accounting for 31% of the global market. Italy, Japan, Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Spain, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

The United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +24.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of polyethylene in primary forms per capita consumption was registered in the United Arab Emirates (168 kg per person), followed by Italy (56 kg per person), Canada (43 kg per person) and Spain (36 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of polyethylene in primary forms was estimated at 11 kg per person.

In the United Arab Emirates, polyethylene in primary forms per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +24.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Italy (+4.8% per year) and Canada (+2.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Polyethylene in Primary Forms

In 2022, global polyethylene in primary forms production expanded rapidly to 84M tons, growing by 5.7% against the year before. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 8.7%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, polyethylene in primary forms production reached $91.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a noticeable slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the production volume increased by 2.9%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $115.1B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (13M tons), Saudi Arabia (10M tons) and India (5.5M tons), together accounting for 34% of global production. China, Iran, Japan, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Thailand, Brazil, Canada and Nigeria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +10.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Polyethylene in Primary Forms

In 2022, global polyethylene in primary forms imports reached 48M tons, stabilizing at the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 49M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, polyethylene in primary forms imports expanded modestly to $72.2B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 42%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China was the key importing country with an import of around 9.5M tons, which accounted for 20% of total imports. The following importers - Germany (2M tons), Turkey (2M tons), India (1.9M tons), Belgium (1.8M tons), the United States (1.7M tons), Italy (1.6M tons), Mexico (1.6M tons), Vietnam (1.6M tons), Singapore (1.4M tons), Poland (1M tons), France (1M tons) and Spain (1M tons) - together made up 39% of total imports.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Vietnam (+8.5%), Turkey (+4.6%), Mexico (+4.2%), India (+4.2%), Poland (+4.1%), Spain (+2.4%), the United States (+1.6%) and Italy (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.5% from 2012-2022. Belgium, Germany and Singapore experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, France (-1.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+4.2 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($11.7B) constitutes the largest market for imported polyethylene in primary forms worldwide, comprising 16% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($3.7B), with a 5.2% share of global imports. It was followed by Turkey, with a 4.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China amounted to +4.2%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+0.4% per year) and Turkey (+3.6% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average polyethylene in primary forms import price stood at $1,500 per ton in 2022, picking up by 1.7% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $1,647 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($1,835 per ton), while Singapore ($1,096 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+2.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Polyethylene in Primary Forms

In 2022, overseas shipments of polyethylene in primary forms decreased by -2.4% to 47M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after nine years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 7.1%. The global exports peaked at 50M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, polyethylene in primary forms exports dropped slightly to $64.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 40%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $67.3B, and then fell in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Saudi Arabia (8.9M tons) and the United States (6.5M tons) were the largest exporters of polyethylene in primary formsacross the globe, together finishing at near 33% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Iran (3.8M tons), Belgium (2.6M tons), South Korea (2.3M tons), Singapore (2.2M tons) and the United Arab Emirates (2.2M tons), together achieving a 28% share of total exports. The following exporters - Germany (1.8M tons), Thailand (1.7M tons), the Netherlands (1.5M tons), Canada (1.4M tons), Malaysia (1.1M tons) and Russia (0.9M tons) - together made up 18% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest polyethylene in primary forms supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($9.4B), Saudi Arabia ($8.9B) and Belgium ($4.8B), with a combined 36% share of global exports. Iran, Germany, South Korea, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Canada, Thailand, Malaysia and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

Russia, with a CAGR of +8.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average polyethylene in primary forms export price amounted to $1,373 per ton, waning by -2.1% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 46%. The global export price peaked at $1,589 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,881 per ton), while Saudi Arabia ($998 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+1.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform