Potassic Fertilizer Market

The global potassic fertilizer market is expected to see continued growth in consumption over the next eight years, with forecasts showing an increase in both volume and value by 2030. The market performance is expected to slow down, with Belarus experiencing the most notable growth in consumption. Potassium chloride (MOP) remains the dominant product in both consumption and production, with significant growth in both areas over the past decade. The article also discusses trends in exports and imports, with insights into pricing and key exporting countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for potassic fertilizers worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 95M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $41.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Potassic Fertilizers

After three years of growth, consumption of potassic fertilizers decreased by -2.3% to 79M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 81M tons in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

The global potassic fertilizer market revenue fell sharply to $35.3B in 2022, with a decrease of -43% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, posted a notable expansion. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $61.9B, and then reduced remarkably in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (19M tons), Brazil (12M tons) and the United States (8.4M tons), with a combined 50% share of global consumption. Belarus, Russia, India, Canada, Indonesia, Chile, South Korea and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Belarus (with a CAGR of +16.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($7B), China ($6.6B) and the United States ($3.7B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 49% share of the global market. Belarus, Russia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Canada and Chile lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

Belarus, with a CAGR of +13.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of potassic fertilizer per capita consumption was registered in Belarus (882 kg per person), followed by Chile (73 kg per person), Brazil (57 kg per person) and Canada (50 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of potassic fertilizer was estimated at 10 kg per person.

In Belarus, potassic fertilizer per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +16.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Chile (+7.2% per year) and Brazil (+4.1% per year).

Consumption By Type

Potassium chloride (MOP) (100M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 97% of total volume. Moreover, potassium chloride (MOP) exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, potassium sulphate (SOP) (3.6M tons), more than tenfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of potassium chloride (MOP) consumption totaled +6.9%.

In value terms, potassium chloride (MOP) ($37.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by potassium sulphate (SOP) ($2.2B).

For potassium chloride (MOP), market increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the period from 2012-2022.

Production

World Production of Potassic Fertilizers

Global potassic fertilizer production totaled 75M tons in 2022, almost unchanged from 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the production volume increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, potassic fertilizer production reduced to $20.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 28% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $23.1B, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Canada (23M tons), Russia (14M tons) and Belarus (12M tons), with a combined 67% share of global production. China, Germany, Jordan and Chile lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +10.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

Potassium chloride (MOP) (84M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, accounting for 97% of total volume. It was followed by potassium sulphate (SOP) (2.5M tons), with a 2.9% share of total production.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of potassium chloride (MOP) production totaled +6.3%.

In value terms, potassium chloride (MOP) ($19.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by potassium sulphate (SOP) ($1.3B).

For potassium chloride (MOP), production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022.

Imports

World Imports of Potassic Fertilizers

Global potassic fertilizer imports reduced rapidly to 49M tons in 2022, falling by -15.2% against 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 59M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, potassic fertilizer imports skyrocketed to $32.5B in 2022. In general, imports, however, recorded a remarkable increase. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of potassic fertilizer imports in 2022 were Brazil (12M tons), the United States (11M tons) and China (8M tons), together accounting for 63% of total import. It was distantly followed by India (2.7M tons), achieving a 5.6% share of total imports. Indonesia (1.8M tons), Malaysia (1.3M tons), Belgium (1.3M tons), South Africa (0.8M tons) and Thailand (0.7M tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by South Africa (with a CAGR of +9.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($9.4B), the United States ($6B) and China ($4.3B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 61% of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, Brazil, with a CAGR of +10.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Potassium chloride (MOP) prevails in imports structure, accounting for 80M tons, which was near 98% of total imports in 2022. Potassium sulphate (SOP) (1.9M tons) took a minor share of total imports.

Potassium chloride (MOP) was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +7.5% from 2012 to 2022. Potassium sulphate (SOP) experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of potassium chloride (MOP) (+1.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of potassium sulphate (SOP) (-1.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, potassium chloride (MOP) ($31B) constitutes the largest type of potassic fertilizers imported worldwide, comprising 95% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by potassium sulphate (SOP) ($1.5B), with a 4.8% share of global imports.

For potassium chloride (MOP), imports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average potassic fertilizer import price amounted to $659 per ton, picking up by 109% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a temperate expansion. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was potassium sulphate (SOP) ($816 per ton), while the price for potassium chloride (MOP) amounted to $387 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by potassium sulphate (SOP) (+2.8%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average potassic fertilizer import price amounted to $659 per ton, surging by 109% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded perceptible growth. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Brazil ($797 per ton), while South Africa ($403 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Potassic Fertilizers

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas shipments of potassic fertilizers, when their volume decreased by -11.6% to 45M tons. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 17%. The global exports peaked at 53M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, potassic fertilizer exports skyrocketed to $28.5B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, saw strong growth. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Canada represented the largest exporting country with an export of around 21M tons, which finished at 47% of total exports. Russia (7.4M tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 16% share, followed by Belarus (9.2%), the United States (7.4%) and Germany (6.1%). Jordan (1.7M tons) and Lao People's Democratic Republic (1.2M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Canada increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Lao People's Democratic Republic (+37.6%), the United States (+5.9%) and Jordan (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Lao People's Democratic Republic emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +37.6% from 2012-2022. Russia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Belarus (-3.7%) and Germany (-3.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Canada (+6.3 p.p.), Germany (+6.1 p.p.), Lao People's Democratic Republic (+2.4 p.p.) and the United States (+1.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Russia and Belarus saw its share reduced by -4.6% and -8.5% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Canada ($12.6B) remains the largest potassic fertilizer supplier worldwide, comprising 44% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Russia ($5.4B), with a 19% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with an 8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Canada stood at +7.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+4.2% per year) and the United States (+9.9% per year).

Exports By Type

The exports of the one major types of potassic fertilizers, namely potassium chloride (MOP), represented more than two-thirds of total export.

Potassium chloride (MOP) was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +6.8% from 2012 to 2022. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, potassium chloride (MOP) ($27.7B) remains the largest type of potassic fertilizers supplied worldwide, comprising 97% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by potassium sulphate (SOP) ($778M), with a 2.7% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of potassium chloride (MOP) exports amounted to +6.2%.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average potassic fertilizer export price amounted to $632 per ton, increasing by 104% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a notable expansion. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was potassium sulphate (SOP) ($919 per ton), while the average price for exports of potassium chloride (MOP) totaled $430 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by potassium sulphate (SOP) (+3.7%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average potassic fertilizer export price amounted to $632 per ton, picking up by 104% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price posted a pronounced expansion. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Russia ($727 per ton) and the United States ($687 per ton), while Belarus ($504 per ton) and Lao People's Democratic Republic ($572 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lao People's Democratic Republic (+6.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform