Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk Market

The article discusses the increasing demand for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk worldwide, with forecasts indicating a rise in consumption and market value up to 2030. The market is projected to see a notable CAGR growth both in volume and value terms. Analysis also highlights the key countries with the highest consumption and production levels, as well as trends in import and export patterns. Overall, the global market for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk shows a positive trend with potential growth opportunities in the foreseeable future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 18M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $60.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk

In 2022, the amount of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk consumed worldwide amounted to 15M tons, increasing by 2.1% against 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The revenue of the market for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk worldwide rose markedly to $43.1B in 2022, picking up by 5.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $45.1B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (1.4M tons), China (1.2M tons) and Germany (835K tons), with a combined 22% share of global consumption. Brazil, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, Algeria, Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +14.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest powdered, condensed or evaporated milk markets worldwide were China ($4.6B), the United States ($3.3B) and Brazil ($2.5B), together accounting for 24% of the global market. Germany, Mexico, Algeria, the Netherlands, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Peru, Russia and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

Italy, with a CAGR of +15.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (34 kg per person), followed by Peru (17 kg per person), Algeria (11 kg per person) and Malaysia (10 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk was estimated at 1.9 kg per person.

In the Netherlands, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Peru (+1.9% per year) and Algeria (+3.4% per year).

Consumption By Type

The products with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were powdered milk (9M tons) and evaporated and condensed milk (6.2M tons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consumed products, was attained by evaporated and condensed milk (with a CAGR of +2.0%).

In value terms, powdered milk ($33.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by evaporated and condensed milk ($10.7B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of powdered milk market totaled +1.6%.

Production

World Production of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk

In 2022, the amount of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk produced worldwide expanded rapidly to 15M tons, increasing by 6.5% compared with the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 8.1%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a temperate increase of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk production expanded to $36.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 14%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $46.2B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were New Zealand (2.8M tons), the United States (2.3M tons) and Germany (1.3M tons), together comprising 41% of global production. The Netherlands, Brazil, Peru, France, Belarus, Mexico, India, Belgium, the UK and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +6.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

The products with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were powdered milk (8.8M tons) and evaporated and condensed milk (6M tons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main produced products, was attained by evaporated and condensed milk (with a CAGR of +1.9%).

In value terms, powdered milk ($27.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by evaporated and condensed milk ($9.9B).

For powdered milk, production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022.

Imports

World Imports of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk

In 2022, supplies from abroad of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk was finally on the rise to reach 8.6M tons after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 8.8%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 8.6M tons in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk imports rose sharply to $27.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +56.8% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 18%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $28.7B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (1.1M tons), followed by Algeria (498K tons), the United Arab Emirates (487K tons) and the Netherlands (431K tons) were the key importers of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, together achieving 29% of total imports. Indonesia (335K tons), Mexico (286K tons), Saudi Arabia (283K tons), Belgium (265K tons), Germany (229K tons), the Philippines (210K tons), Oman (173K tons), Italy (170K tons) and Malaysia (170K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (+7.0%), Italy (+5.5%), Algeria (+5.4%), Indonesia (+5.3%), the Philippines (+3.3%), Germany (+2.9%), Oman (+2.4%), Belgium (+1.9%) and the Netherlands (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +7.0% from 2012-2022. Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria increased by +4.3, +2.1 and +1.6 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($4.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported powdered, condensed or evaporated milk worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Algeria ($1.5B), with a 5.6% share of global imports. It was followed by Indonesia, with a 4.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +8.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Algeria (+3.6% per year) and Indonesia (+7.1% per year).

Imports By Type

In 2022, powdered milk (6.1M tons) represented the main type of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, making up 75% of total imports. It was distantly followed by evaporated and condensed milk (2.1M tons), creating a 25% share of total imports.

Powdered milk was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, evaporated and condensed milk (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, powdered milk ($23.7B) constitutes the largest type of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk imported worldwide, comprising 87% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by evaporated and condensed milk ($3.4B), with a 13% share of global imports.

For powdered milk, imports increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

The average import price for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk stood at $3,178 per ton in 2022, surging by 9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 an increase of 14% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $3,746 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,853 per ton), while the price for evaporated and condensed milk stood at $1,646 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by powdered milk (+0.8%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk amounted to $3,178 per ton, picking up by 9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average import price increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $3,746 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($4,236 per ton), while Oman ($2,274 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk

Global powdered, condensed or evaporated milk exports expanded sharply to 8.8M tons in 2022, picking up by 11% on the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk exports skyrocketed to $30.1B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +90.9% against 2016 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, New Zealand (2.8M tons) represented the largest exporter of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, making up 32% of total exports. The United States (897K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 10% share, followed by Germany (7.8%), the Netherlands (7.2%) and France (4.6%). Belgium (344K tons), the United Arab Emirates (336K tons), Australia (266K tons), Ireland (222K tons), Belarus (200K tons), Saudi Arabia (190K tons), Argentina (182K tons) and Uruguay (158K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to powdered, condensed or evaporated milk exports from New Zealand stood at +5.2%. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (+13.4%), Ireland (+9.7%), the United States (+6.2%), Uruguay (+5.3%), Saudi Arabia (+4.1%) and the Netherlands (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +13.4% from 2012-2022. Germany, Belgium, Belarus and France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Australia (-1.1%) and Argentina (-1.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. New Zealand (+6.6 p.p.), the United States (+2.9 p.p.) and the United Arab Emirates (+2.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while France and Germany saw its share reduced by -1.7% and -1.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, New Zealand ($10.6B) remains the largest powdered, condensed or evaporated milk supplier worldwide, comprising 35% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($3.3B), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 6.5% share.

In New Zealand, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk exports expanded at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the United States (+8.7% per year) and Germany (+2.4% per year).

Exports By Type

Powdered milk represented the main exported product with an export of around 5.9M tons, which recorded 76% of total exports. It was distantly followed by evaporated and condensed milk (1.8M tons), mixing up a 24% share of total exports.

Powdered milk was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, evaporated and condensed milk (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, powdered milk ($23.7B) remains the largest type of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk supplied worldwide, comprising 88% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by evaporated and condensed milk ($3.1B), with a 12% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of powdered milk exports totaled +3.3%.

Export Prices By Type

The average export price for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk stood at $3,417 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk export price increased by +57.8% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 an increase of 22%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $3,551 per ton. From 2014 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,987 per ton), while the average price for exports of evaporated and condensed milk amounted to $1,719 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by powdered milk (+1.8%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average export price for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk amounted to $3,417 per ton, picking up by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk export price increased by +57.8% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average export price increased by 22%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $3,551 per ton. From 2014 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($4,321 per ton), while Saudi Arabia ($1,214 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform