Rapeseed Oil Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global rapeseed oil market, focusing on consumption, production, and exports. Forecasted trends suggest a slight increase in market performance with a projected CAGR of +3.7% in volume and +4.5% in value until 2030. Consumption declined in 2022 after five years of growth, reaching 24M tons. Major consuming countries include China, the United States, and India. Production also experienced a decrease in 2022 to 24M tons, with Canada, Germany, and China being the top producers. Exports peaked in 2021 at 9.3M tons, with Canada leading in exports. Average export prices have shown a steady increase over the last decade. Overall, the article provides valuable insights into the rapeseed oil market's current state and future projections.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for rapeseed oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 32M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $50.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Rapeseed Oil

In 2022, consumption of rapeseed oil decreased by -17.5% to 24M tons for the first time since 2016, thus ending a five-year rising trend. Overall, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 29M tons in 2021, and then contracted sharply in the following year.

The global rapeseed oil market revenue shrank to $35.6B in 2022, falling by -7.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $38.4B, and then dropped in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (4.2M tons), the United States (2.8M tons) and India (2.7M tons), together comprising 40% of global consumption. Germany, Canada, Poland, Japan, Belgium, France, Mexico, the Netherlands, Pakistan and Norway lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 42%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +12.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rapeseed oil markets worldwide were China ($6.1B), India ($5.6B) and the United States ($4.5B), together comprising 46% of the global market. Germany, Japan, Poland, Canada, Belgium, Mexico, France, Pakistan, the Netherlands and Norway lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +13.6%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of rapeseed oil per capita consumption in 2022 were Norway (82 kg per person), Belgium (67 kg per person) and Canada (45 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +11.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Rapeseed Oil

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in production of rapeseed oil, when its volume decreased by -16.6% to 24M tons. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 7.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 29M tons in 2021, and then shrank rapidly in the following year.

In value terms, rapeseed oil production declined to $33.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 37%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $37.3B, and then declined in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Canada (4.4M tons), Germany (3.3M tons) and China (3.1M tons), together accounting for 44% of global production. India, Poland, France, Japan, Russia, the United States, Belgium, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +14.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Rapeseed Oil

After four years of growth, overseas purchases of rapeseed oil decreased by -13.3% to 8.1M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 9.4M tons, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, rapeseed oil imports expanded markedly to $14B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a prominent expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 59% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (2.1M tons), distantly followed by China (1,061K tons), the Netherlands (945K tons), Belgium (559K tons), Norway (443K tons) and Germany (395K tons) represented the largest importers of rapeseed oil, together constituting 68% of total imports. The following importers - Poland (289K tons), France (182K tons), Sweden (166K tons), Lithuania (152K tons), South Korea (145K tons), Spain (140K tons) and Latvia (132K tons) - together made up 15% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to rapeseed oil imports into the United States stood at +4.1%. At the same time, Spain (+15.8%), Poland (+11.5%), Lithuania (+10.1%), Germany (+6.3%), Latvia (+6.3%), Belgium (+5.5%), the Netherlands (+4.9%), South Korea (+4.3%) and Norway (+3.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +15.8% from 2012-2022. Sweden experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, China (-1.0%) and France (-1.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the United States, the Netherlands, Poland and Belgium increased by +3.4, +2.2, +2 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($4B) constitutes the largest market for imported rapeseed oil worldwide, comprising 29% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($1.7B), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with an 11% share.

In the United States, rapeseed oil imports expanded at an average annual rate of +8.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+0.9% per year) and the Netherlands (+6.8% per year).

Imports By Type

Vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (4.4M tons) and vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (3.2M tons) dominates imports structure, together achieving 93% of total imports. The following types - vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (324K tons) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (243K tons) - together made up 7% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (with a CAGR of +9.3%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of imported rapeseed oil were vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($7B), vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($5.9B) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($588M), with a combined 97% share of global imports.

Vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude, with a CAGR of +11.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main imported products over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

The average rapeseed oil import price stood at $1,720 per ton in 2022, picking up by 33% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, rapeseed oil import price increased by +97.2% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 42%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, major imported products recorded the following prices: in vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($1,870 per ton) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($1,818 per ton), while the price for vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($1,599 per ton) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($1,804 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+3.2%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average rapeseed oil import price stood at $1,720 per ton in 2022, increasing by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, rapeseed oil import price increased by +97.2% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 42%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the United States ($1,891 per ton) and Germany ($1,758 per ton), while Latvia ($1,393 per ton) and Lithuania ($1,492 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Rapeseed Oil

After four years of growth, overseas shipments of rapeseed oil decreased by -10.6% to 8.3M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 11%. The global exports peaked at 9.3M tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, rapeseed oil exports surged to $14.1B in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 58%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Canada (2.7M tons) was the key exporter of rapeseed oil, generating 32% of total exports. Germany (1,079K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 13% share, followed by Russia (10%), France (6.6%) and the Netherlands (5.2%). Belarus (363K tons), the United Arab Emirates (358K tons), Belgium (335K tons), the Czech Republic (207K tons), Australia (197K tons), Denmark (161K tons) and Poland (133K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Canada experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of rapeseed oil. At the same time, Belarus (+31.8%), Russia (+14.9%), France (+6.5%), Australia (+6.2%), Denmark (+5.0%), the United Arab Emirates (+3.5%), Germany (+3.0%) and Belgium (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belarus emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +31.8% from 2012-2022. The Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Poland (-2.4%) and the Czech Republic (-4.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Russia (+6.9 p.p.), Belarus (+4 p.p.) and France (+2.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of the Czech Republic (-2.3 p.p.) and Canada (-8.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Canada ($4.9B) remains the largest rapeseed oil supplier worldwide, comprising 34% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($1.8B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by Russia, with an 8.8% share.

In Canada, rapeseed oil exports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+5.7% per year) and Russia (+17.2% per year).

Exports By Type

Vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (4.2M tons) and vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (3.5M tons) dominates exports structure, together creating 93% of total exports. It was distantly followed by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (428K tons), creating a 5.2% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exported products, was attained by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (with a CAGR of +12.3%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of exported rapeseed oil were vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($6.6B), vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($6.6B) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($710M), with a combined 98% share of global exports.

Vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude, with a CAGR of +14.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exported products over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average rapeseed oil export price amounted to $1,701 per ton, with an increase of 30% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, rapeseed oil export price increased by +99.3% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 46% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, major exported products recorded the following prices: in vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($1,920 per ton) and vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($1,867 per ton), while the average price for exports of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($1,559 per ton) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($1,658 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+3.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average rapeseed oil export price stood at $1,701 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, rapeseed oil export price increased by +99.3% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 46% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Canada ($1,833 per ton) and Australia ($1,775 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($1,487 per ton) and Russia ($1,495 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belarus (+3.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform