Refined Olive Oil Market

The global market for refined olive oil is projected to experience a consumption increase and market value growth over the period from 2022 to 2030. Consumption of refined olive oil is forecasted to reach 4.5M tons by the end of 2030 with a slight increase in performance. The market value is expected to rise to $39.5B by 2030. In 2022, consumption increased by 4.5% to 4.1M tons, marking the second consecutive year of growth after a decline. The market revenue was estimated at $28.1B in 2022. The top consuming countries were China, India, and the United States, while Spain, Italy, and Germany showed high per capita consumption levels. Production and exports also saw fluctuations, with Spain leading as the largest exporter of refined olive oil.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for refined olive oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $39.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Refined Olive Oil

In 2022, consumption of refined olive oil increased by 4.5% to 4.1M tons, rising for the second year in a row after six years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a slight curtailment. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 5M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global refined olive oil market revenue was estimated at $28.1B in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, showed a slight reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 8.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $33.7B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (602K tons), India (468K tons) and the United States (384K tons), together comprising 36% of global consumption. Spain, Italy, Japan, Pakistan, Germany, Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +9.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($12.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($2.2B). It was followed by India.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Japan (-7.1% per year) and India (+10.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of refined olive oil per capita consumption in 2022 were Spain (3,779 kg per 1000 persons), Italy (2,213 kg per 1000 persons) and Germany (1,234 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +9.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Refined Olive Oil

In 2022, the amount of refined olive oil produced worldwide fell to 3.8M tons, remaining stable against 2021. Overall, production recorded a noticeable decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 2.7% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 4.9M tons. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, refined olive oil production reached $28.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a mild slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 5.5%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $33B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (589K tons), Spain (448K tons) and the United States (276K tons), together comprising 34% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +5.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Refined Olive Oil

In 2022, the amount of refined olive oil imported worldwide soared to 697K tons, with an increase of 82% against the year before. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +91.3% against 2019 indices. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, refined olive oil imports skyrocketed to $2.1B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +81.0% against 2019 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

India represented the major importing country with an import of about 234K tons, which reached 34% of total imports. The United States (119K tons) held a 17% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Italy (7.6%). The following importers - Spain (29K tons), the UK (28K tons), Portugal (28K tons), Brazil (17K tons), Japan (14K tons), China (13K tons), Australia (13K tons), the Netherlands (11K tons), Germany (11K tons) and Canada (11K tons) - together made up 25% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +41.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest refined olive oil importing markets worldwide were the United States ($466M), India ($266M) and Italy ($187M), together comprising 45% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, India, with a CAGR of +28.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average refined olive oil import price amounted to $2,955 per ton, falling by -12.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 22% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $4,224 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($4,828 per ton), while India ($1,134 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+7.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Refined Olive Oil

In 2022, the amount of refined olive oil exported worldwide skyrocketed to 489K tons, jumping by 21% compared with 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, refined olive oil exports surged to $1.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +76.7% against 2019 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Spain was the largest exporter of refined olive oil in the world, with the volume of exports recording 298K tons, which was approx. 61% of total exports in 2022. Italy (56K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with an 11% share, followed by Portugal (6.8%) and Turkey (6%). Greece (17K tons), the United States (11K tons) and Tunisia (10K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Spain increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Turkey (+11.9%), the United States (+7.5%), Greece (+4.8%) and Portugal (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Turkey emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +11.9% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Italy (-3.8%) and Tunisia (-5.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Spain (+8.7 p.p.) and Turkey (+3.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Tunisia (-2.9 p.p.) and Italy (-10.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Spain ($1.2B) remains the largest refined olive oil supplier worldwide, comprising 59% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($273M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Portugal, with a 6.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Spain totaled +7.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (-0.5% per year) and Portugal (+3.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average refined olive oil export price stood at $3,978 per ton in 2022, surging by 15% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average export price increased by 27%. The global export price peaked at $4,419 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($4,879 per ton), while the United States ($2,697 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tunisia (+3.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform