Refined or Synthetic Glycerol Market

The global market for refined or synthetic glycerol is projected to experience steady growth in both volume and value terms over the next eight years. Market performance is forecasted to expand with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for volume and +4.8% for value from 2022 to 2030. The article details the consumption, production, imports, and exports of refined or synthetic glycerol, with insights on key market trends and the top consuming, producing, importing, and exporting countries. China leads in consumption, while Indonesia leads in production and exports. Overall, the market is expected to see continued growth and stability in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for refined or synthetic glycerol worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.7M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $7.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Refined or Synthetic Glycerol

For the eighth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in consumption of refined or synthetic glycerol, which increased by 7.6% to 4.7M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global refined or synthetic glycerol market revenue skyrocketed to $5.4B in 2022, increasing by 15% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +72.4% against 2015 indices. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

China (1.1M tons) remains the largest refined or synthetic glycerol consuming country worldwide, accounting for 23% of total volume. Moreover, refined or synthetic glycerol consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (470K tons), twofold. India (384K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with an 8.1% share.

In China, refined or synthetic glycerol consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+7.8% per year) and India (+3.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($1.1B), India ($779M) and the United States ($560M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 46% of the global market. Pakistan, the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Brazil, Germany, Denmark and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

Italy, with a CAGR of +20.9%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of refined or synthetic glycerol per capita consumption was registered in Denmark (14 kg per person), followed by the UK (4 kg per person), Germany (2 kg per person) and South Korea (1.7 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of refined or synthetic glycerol was estimated at 0.6 kg per person.

In Denmark, refined or synthetic glycerol per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +12.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the UK (+13.1% per year) and Germany (+9.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Refined or Synthetic Glycerol

In 2022, global refined or synthetic glycerol production rose sharply to 4.8M tons, increasing by 5.1% on the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, refined or synthetic glycerol production amounted to $4.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +50.5% against 2015 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Indonesia (962K tons), China (617K tons) and Malaysia (434K tons), together accounting for 42% of global production. Germany, India, Brazil, the United States, Pakistan, the Netherlands, Argentina, the UK and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 42%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +18.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Refined or Synthetic Glycerol

For the seventh year in a row, the global market recorded growth in overseas purchases of refined or synthetic glycerol, which increased by 27% to 2.5M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +76.8% against 2014 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, refined or synthetic glycerol imports soared to $3.3B in 2022. Overall, imports saw strong growth. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (492K tons), distantly followed by the United States (238K tons), the Netherlands (206K tons) and the UK (166K tons) represented the major importers of refined or synthetic glycerol, together creating 44% of total imports. The following importers - Japan (90K tons), Denmark (80K tons), Spain (72K tons), Mexico (71K tons), Canada (67K tons), France (64K tons), Germany (63K tons), India (59K tons) and Italy (54K tons) - together made up 25% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to refined or synthetic glycerol imports into China stood at +14.2%. At the same time, Canada (+16.9%), the UK (+15.5%), Denmark (+12.8%), Spain (+9.2%), Mexico (+7.4%), the Netherlands (+7.1%), the United States (+6.7%), Italy (+6.6%), Germany (+5.2%), Japan (+4.2%), India (+3.3%) and France (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Canada emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +16.9% from 2012-2022. While the share of China (+9.4 p.p.), the UK (+3.5 p.p.) and Canada (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of France (-1.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest refined or synthetic glycerol importing markets worldwide were China ($613M), the United States ($355M) and the Netherlands ($195M), together accounting for 35% of global imports.

China, with a CAGR of +20.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average refined or synthetic glycerol import price amounted to $1,324 per ton, surging by 36% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined or synthetic glycerol import price increased by +91.5% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 40%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($1,899 per ton), while Denmark ($866 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+8.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Refined or Synthetic Glycerol

In 2022, overseas shipments of refined or synthetic glycerol increased by 20% to 2.6M tons, rising for the sixth year in a row after two years of decline. In general, total exports indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +75.8% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 48%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, refined or synthetic glycerol exports skyrocketed to $3.3B in 2022. Overall, exports posted a prominent increase. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Indonesia was the main exporting country with an export of around 864K tons, which recorded 33% of total exports. Malaysia (435K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Germany (325K tons), the Netherlands (313K tons) and Brazil (140K tons). All these countries together took near 47% share of total exports. Argentina (99K tons), Belgium (55K tons) and Poland (50K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +51.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Indonesia ($935M), Malaysia ($577M) and Germany ($471M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 61% of global exports. The Netherlands, Brazil, Argentina, Belgium and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

Brazil, with a CAGR of +56.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average refined or synthetic glycerol export price stood at $1,267 per ton in 2022, increasing by 36% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined or synthetic glycerol export price increased by +96.9% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 43%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,451 per ton), while Poland ($948 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+7.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform