Refined Palm Oil Market

Driven by increasing demand for refined palm oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 99M tons by the end of 2030. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $235.3B by the end of 2030. Global consumption of refined palm oil peaked at 77M tons in 2021 and decreased slightly in 2022. The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China, India, and the United States. Indonesia led in refined palm oil production, while China, Pakistan, and India were among the major importers. Indonesia and Malaysia were the main exporting countries. The average refined palm oil export price showed a mild expansion from 2012 to 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for refined palm oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 99M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $235.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Refined Palm Oil

After three years of growth, consumption of refined palm oil decreased by -5% to 73M tons in 2022. In general, the total consumption indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +77.8% against 2012 indices. Global consumption peaked at 77M tons in 2021, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

The global refined palm oil market size expanded slightly to $154.5B in 2022, with an increase of 2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +75.8% against 2013 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (9.5M tons), India (6.3M tons) and the United States (5.5M tons), together accounting for 29% of global consumption. Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Japan, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, Ethiopia, the Philippines and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +17.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($10.2B), Japan ($9B) and India ($7.1B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 17% of the global market. The United States, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Turkey, Mexico, Ethiopia, the Philippines and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 16%.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +18.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of refined palm oil per capita consumption in 2022 were Turkey (16 kg per person), the United States (16 kg per person) and Japan (15 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +15.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Refined Palm Oil

In 2022, approx. 75M tons of refined palm oil were produced worldwide; which is down by -5.2% against the year before. In general, the total production indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +6.3% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 28%. Global production peaked at 80M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, refined palm oil production reduced to $137.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +7.3% against 2017 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 42%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level at $140.9B in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

Indonesia (23M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of refined palm oil production, comprising approx. 30% of total volume. Moreover, refined palm oil production in Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Malaysia (9.1M tons), twofold. China (4.6M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.1% share.

In Indonesia, refined palm oil production increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Malaysia (-1.1% per year) and China (+19.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Refined Palm Oil

In 2022, approx. 32M tons of refined palm oil were imported worldwide; waning by -1.5% on the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 16%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 33M tons in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

In value terms, refined palm oil imports soared to $41.9B in 2022. In general, imports, however, recorded buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 60% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (4.9M tons), followed by Pakistan (2.7M tons), India (2.5M tons), the United States (1.7M tons) and Bangladesh (1.6M tons) were the major importers of refined palm oil, together making up 41% of total imports. The following importers - Turkey (1,016K tons), the Philippines (1,014K tons), Vietnam (995K tons), Malaysia (990K tons), Russia (989K tons), Italy (934K tons), Ethiopia (684K tons) and Egypt (647K tons) - together made up 22% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +41.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($5.8B), Pakistan ($3.7B) and India ($3.2B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 31% share of global imports. The United States, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Russia, Malaysia, Italy, Turkey, Egypt, Vietnam and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

Among the main importing countries, the Philippines, with a CAGR of +44.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average refined palm oil import price stood at $1,291 per ton in 2022, increasing by 22% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined palm oil import price increased by +109.3% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 45%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Egypt ($1,741 per ton), while Vietnam ($1,120 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (+2.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Refined Palm Oil

In 2022, global refined palm oil exports shrank to 35M tons, which is down by -2.4% against the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 36M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, refined palm oil exports expanded rapidly to $42B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, showed a resilient increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 68% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Indonesia was the main exporting country with an export of about 22M tons, which finished at 62% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Malaysia (9.7M tons), creating a 28% share of total exports. The Netherlands (713K tons) took a little share of total exports.

Indonesia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the refined palm oil exports, with a CAGR of +6.4% from 2012 to 2022. Malaysia (-1.1%) and the Netherlands (-4.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Indonesia (+16 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of the Netherlands (-2.6 p.p.) and Malaysia (-15.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Indonesia ($24.4B), Malaysia ($12.5B) and the Netherlands ($1.2B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 91% share of global exports.

Indonesia, with a CAGR of +8.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

Export Prices By Country

The average refined palm oil export price stood at $1,212 per ton in 2022, rising by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a mild expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined palm oil export price increased by +113.9% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 52% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,639 per ton), while Indonesia ($1,130 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+3.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform