Soybean Oilcake Market

The article discusses the forecasted growth in global demand for soybean oilcake from 2022 to 2030, predicting an upward consumption trend with a CAGR of +1.5% in volume and +3.5% in value. It notes fluctuations in consumption and production over the years, highlighting key consuming and producing countries like China, the United States, India, and Argentina. Import and export trends are also analyzed, with countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, Argentina, and Brazil playing major roles. Price trends for imports and exports are examined, showcasing fluctuations and notable growth rates in different countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for soybean oilcake worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 282M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $163.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Soybean Oilcake

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in consumption of soybean oilcake, when its volume decreased by -1.7% to 251M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 6.1%. Global consumption peaked at 256M tons in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

The global soybean oilcake market size reduced modestly to $124.2B in 2022, falling by -2.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $127.9B, and then reduced in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (39M tons), the United States (20M tons) and India (16M tons), together accounting for 30% of global consumption. Pakistan, Japan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Russia, Germany, Nigeria, Vietnam, the Philippines and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +10.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($18.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($8.8B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the soybean oilcake market increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+4.2% per year) and the United States (+1.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of soybean oilcake per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (76 kg per person), Japan (63 kg per person) and the United States (59 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +9.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Soybean Oilcake

In 2022, approx. 251M tons of soybean oilcake were produced worldwide; therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 6.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

In value terms, soybean oilcake production contracted to $121.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $129.9B, and then contracted in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (40M tons), the United States (29M tons) and Argentina (26M tons), with a combined 38% share of global production. Brazil, India, Pakistan, Russia, Bangladesh, Japan, Nigeria, Germany and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Ethiopia (with a CAGR of +7.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Soybean Oilcake

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was growth in supplies from abroad of soybean oilcake, when their volume increased by 3% to 70M tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 7.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, soybean oilcake imports surged to $37.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

Indonesia (5.9M tons) and Vietnam (5.1M tons) were the key importers of soybean oilcake in 2022, accounting for approx. 8.5% and 7.4% of total imports, respectively. It was followed by the Philippines (3.3M tons), making up a 4.8% share of total imports. The following importers - Thailand (2.9M tons), France (2.8M tons), Spain (2.8M tons), the Netherlands (2.8M tons), Poland (2.7M tons), Germany (2.3M tons), the UK (1.9M tons), Mexico (1.7M tons), Colombia (1.7M tons) and South Korea (1.7M tons) - together made up 34% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +8.7%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Indonesia ($2.9B), Vietnam ($2.5B) and the Philippines ($1.9B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 19% share of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Philippines, with a CAGR of +10.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average soybean oilcake import price amounted to $543 per ton, rising by 13% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the Philippines ($579 per ton) and Germany ($571 per ton), while Vietnam ($487 per ton) and Indonesia ($493 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Colombia (+2.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Soybean Oilcake

After two years of decline, shipments abroad of soybean oilcake increased by 11% to 70M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The global exports peaked at 70M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, soybean oilcake exports surged to $35.6B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Argentina (24M tons) and Brazil (20M tons) represented roughly 64% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by the United States (9.7M tons), achieving a 14% share of total exports. The Netherlands (2.8M tons), Bolivia (2.2M tons), Germany (1.7M tons) and Paraguay (1.2M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Paraguay (with a CAGR of +9.8%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest soybean oilcake supplying countries worldwide were Argentina ($11.4B), Brazil ($10.3B) and the United States ($5B), with a combined 75% share of global exports. The Netherlands, Bolivia, Germany and Paraguay lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 11%.

Paraguay, with a CAGR of +11.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average soybean oilcake export price amounted to $512 per ton, with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 25% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $514 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($541 per ton) and the United States ($519 per ton), while Bolivia ($436 per ton) and Paraguay ($473 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Paraguay (+1.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform