Tomato Ketchup Market

The global tomato ketchup and tomato sauces market is poised for growth, with an expected increase in consumption and production from 2022 to 2030. The market is forecasted to expand at a CAGR of +2.3% in volume and +4.3% in value, reaching 21M tons and $31.2B by 2030, respectively. Despite a slight decrease in consumption in 2022, the market has shown overall positive growth over the past decade. Key consuming countries include China, the United States, and India, while top producers are China, the United States, and India. Import and export trends also play a significant role in the market, with countries like the Netherlands, the United States, Italy, and Spain being major players in global trade. Prices have seen a moderate increase over the years, with fluctuations observed in certain periods. Overall, the market for tomato ketchup and tomato sauces is expected to see steady growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tomato ketchup and tomato sauces worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 21M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $31.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Tomato Ketchup And Tomato Sauces

After two years of growth, consumption of tomato ketchup and tomato sauces decreased by -1.1% to 17M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 3.8%. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 18M tons, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

The global tomato ketchup market revenue declined to $22.2B in 2022, with a decrease of -2.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the market value increased by 7.4% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $22.8B, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (3M tons), the United States (1.9M tons) and India (1.2M tons), together accounting for 36% of global consumption. Russia, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Italy, Mexico, the UK, Nigeria and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +7.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($2.7B), the United States ($2B) and India ($2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 30% share of the global market. Pakistan, Nigeria, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, the UK, Spain, Brazil, Bangladesh and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

Italy, with a CAGR of +6.4%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of tomato ketchup per capita consumption in 2022 were Spain (6.8 kg per person), Italy (6.3 kg per person) and the United States (5.8 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +7.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Tomato Ketchup And Tomato Sauces

In 2022, production of tomato ketchup and tomato sauces decreased by -0.7% to 17M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 4.2% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 18M tons, leveling off in the following year.

In value terms, tomato ketchup production dropped modestly to $21.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $22.7B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (3.1M tons), the United States (2.2M tons) and India (1.2M tons), together accounting for 37% of global production. Italy, Russia, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia, Spain, Bangladesh, Nigeria, the Netherlands and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +7.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Tomato Ketchup And Tomato Sauces

In 2022, supplies from abroad of tomato ketchup and tomato sauces decreased by -3.6% to 1.6M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 9.3%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 1.6M tons in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, tomato ketchup imports expanded slightly to $2.3B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 8.3%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

The UK (187K tons), Germany (148K tons), France (145K tons) and Canada (106K tons) represented roughly 38% of total imports in 2022. The United States (60K tons), the Netherlands (46K tons), Mexico (46K tons), Belgium (29K tons), Guatemala (26K tons), Australia (26K tons), Austria (25K tons) and the Czech Republic (24K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Guatemala (with a CAGR of +17.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the UK ($222M), Germany ($221M) and France ($207M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 28% share of global imports. Canada, the United States, the Netherlands, Mexico, Australia, Belgium, Guatemala, Austria and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Guatemala, with a CAGR of +20.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average tomato ketchup import price amounted to $1,495 per ton, growing by 5.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 5.8% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($1,834 per ton), while the UK ($1,187 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+18.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Tomato Ketchup And Tomato Sauces

In 2022, approx. 1.7M tons of tomato ketchup and tomato sauces were exported worldwide; stabilizing at the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 11%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, tomato ketchup exports rose rapidly to $2.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (331K tons) and the United States (312K tons) were the main exporters of tomato ketchup and tomato saucesacross the globe, together achieving 39% of total exports. Italy (181K tons) held an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Spain (6.6%). Portugal (68K tons), Poland (67K tons), Belgium (66K tons), Germany (60K tons), Egypt (42K tons), Canada (31K tons) and Costa Rica (30K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Egypt (with a CAGR of +12.3%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest tomato ketchup supplying countries worldwide were the Netherlands ($448M), Italy ($356M) and the United States ($343M), together comprising 50% of global exports. Spain, Germany, Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Egypt, Canada and Costa Rica lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Egypt, with a CAGR of +12.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average tomato ketchup export price stood at $1,395 per ton in 2022, growing by 4.4% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the average export price increased by 6.7%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,969 per ton), while Portugal ($976 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Costa Rica (+1.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform