Virgin Olive Oil Market

The global virgin olive oil market is projected to continue an upward consumption trend, with market performance expected to expand at an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% from 2022 to 2030. The market volume is forecasted to reach 3.9M tons by 2030, with a value of $15B. Spain dominates in consumption and production, while Japan leads in imports. Tunisia is the major exporter with consistent growth rates. Price fluctuations are noted in both import and export markets, with specific countries showing varying trends.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for virgin olive oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $15B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Virgin Olive Oil

In 2022, the amount of virgin olive oil consumed worldwide rose to 3.6M tons, surging by 3.4% against the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 3.7M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global virgin olive oil market value fell to $10.8B in 2022, waning by -11.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $13B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

Spain (1.4M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of virgin olive oil consumption, comprising approx. 40% of total volume. Moreover, virgin olive oil consumption in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Italy (335K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Greece (301K tons), with an 8.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Spain amounted to +33.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (-7.5% per year) and Greece (+3.4% per year).

In value terms, Spain ($4.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($1.4B). It was followed by Morocco.

In Spain, the virgin olive oil market increased at an average annual rate of +30.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Italy (-7.8% per year) and Morocco (+9.1% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of virgin olive oil per capita consumption in 2022 were Spain (30 kg per person), Greece (28 kg per person) and Tunisia (13 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +33.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Virgin Olive Oil

In 2022, the amount of virgin olive oil produced worldwide expanded markedly to 3.7M tons, picking up by 11% on 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 51%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, virgin olive oil production shrank to $9.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 23% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $10.5B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

Spain (1.4M tons) remains the largest virgin olive oil producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 38% of total volume. Moreover, virgin olive oil production in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Tunisia (353K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Italy (335K tons), with a 9% share.

In Spain, virgin olive oil production increased at an average annual rate of +8.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tunisia (+6.3% per year) and Italy (-4.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Virgin Olive Oil

In 2022, overseas purchases of virgin olive oil decreased by -92.7% to 139K tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. In general, imports showed a sharp decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 19%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 2.1M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, virgin olive oil imports fell significantly to $642M in 2022. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a abrupt decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at $7.5B in 2021, and then contracted rapidly in the following year.

Imports By Country

Japan represented the main importer of virgin olive oil in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 51K tons, which was near 36% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by South Korea (17K tons), comprising a 12% share of total imports. Taiwan (Chinese) (6K tons), Colombia (5.4K tons), Iran (3.6K tons), the United Arab Emirates (3.5K tons), Argentina (3.4K tons), the Dominican Republic (2.3K tons), Singapore (2.3K tons) and Norway (2.1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to virgin olive oil imports into Japan stood at +4.4%. At the same time, Argentina (+51.0%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+13.7%), Iran (+8.3%), South Korea (+7.0%), Colombia (+5.3%), the Dominican Republic (+2.4%), Singapore (+1.5%) and Norway (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Argentina emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +51.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, the United Arab Emirates (-3.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Japan (+34 p.p.), South Korea (+11 p.p.), Taiwan (Chinese) (+4.2 p.p.), Colombia (+3.6 p.p.), Iran (+2.5 p.p.), Argentina (+2.4 p.p.), the United Arab Emirates (+2.2 p.p.) and the Dominican Republic (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Japan ($253M) constitutes the largest market for imported virgin olive oil worldwide, comprising 39% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by South Korea ($76M), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by Taiwan (Chinese), with a 5.6% share.

In Japan, virgin olive oil imports expanded at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: South Korea (+10.7% per year) and Taiwan (Chinese) (+16.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average virgin olive oil import price stood at $4,613 per ton in 2022, jumping by 18% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.8%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $4,703 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Taiwan (Chinese) ($5,950 per ton), while Iran ($3,399 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Virgin Olive Oil

In 2022, shipments abroad of virgin olive oil decreased by -83.9% to 293K tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. In general, exports recorded a abrupt decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 21%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 2.1M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, virgin olive oil exports dropped dramatically to $1.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a abrupt contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $7.3B in 2021, and then contracted notably in the following year.

Exports By Country

Tunisia was the major exporter of virgin olive oil in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 198K tons, which was approx. 68% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Syrian Arab Republic (52K tons) and Argentina (25K tons), together mixing up a 26% share of total exports. Palestine (9.6K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to virgin olive oil exports from Tunisia stood at +4.0%. At the same time, Syrian Arab Republic (+16.8%), Argentina (+6.0%) and Palestine (+5.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Syrian Arab Republic emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +16.8% from 2012-2022. While the share of Tunisia (+58 p.p.), Syrian Arab Republic (+17 p.p.), Argentina (+7.4 p.p.) and Palestine (+2.9 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Tunisia ($765M) remains the largest virgin olive oil supplier worldwide, comprising 72% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Syrian Arab Republic ($129M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Argentina, with a 9.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Tunisia stood at +8.8%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Syrian Arab Republic (+15.0% per year) and Argentina (+8.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average virgin olive oil export price amounted to $3,629 per ton, reducing by -9.6% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, continues to indicate mild growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 28%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $4,656 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Palestine ($4,415 per ton), while Syrian Arab Republic ($2,507 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tunisia (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform