Whole Powdered Milk Market

The global whole powdered milk market is forecasted to experience continued growth over the next eight years, with a projected CAGR of +2.6% from 2022 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 6M tons. In value terms, the market is anticipated to increase with a CAGR of +5.0%, bringing the market value to $27.4B by 2030. In 2022, global consumption of whole powdered milk saw significant growth, reaching 4.9M tons. The top consuming countries in 2022 were China, Brazil, and New Zealand. New Zealand emerged as the country with the highest whole powdered milk per capita consumption. Global production of whole powdered milk peaked in 2022, with New Zealand leading in production volume. Imports and exports of whole powdered milk also showed notable trends, with China and New Zealand dominating the import and export markets, respectively. Overall, the global whole powdered milk market is poised for growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for whole powdered milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $27.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Whole Powdered Milk

In 2022, the amount of whole powdered milk consumed worldwide expanded notably to 4.9M tons, growing by 5.3% on the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

The global whole powdered milk market revenue rose markedly to $18.6B in 2022, surging by 7.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $19.8B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (700K tons), Brazil (668K tons) and New Zealand (554K tons), together comprising 39% of global consumption. Algeria, Mexico, Vietnam, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Belgium, Bangladesh and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +35.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($2.9B), Brazil ($2.3B) and New Zealand ($1.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 36% of the global market. Algeria, Mexico, Vietnam, the Netherlands, Belgium, Indonesia and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +36.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of whole powdered milk per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (107 kg per person), followed by Belgium (8.2 kg per person), the Netherlands (6.5 kg per person) and Algeria (5.6 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of whole powdered milk was estimated at 0.6 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the whole powdered milk per capita consumption in New Zealand totaled +5.7%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Belgium (+18.1% per year) and the Netherlands (+35.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Whole Powdered Milk

In 2022, approx. 4.6M tons of whole powdered milk were produced worldwide; growing by 4.1% compared with the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 10% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

In value terms, whole powdered milk production rose remarkably to $14.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 23%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $18.8B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

New Zealand (1.9M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of whole powdered milk production, accounting for 41% of total volume. Moreover, whole powdered milk production in New Zealand exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Brazil (592K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Argentina (207K tons), with a 4.5% share.

In New Zealand, whole powdered milk production increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Brazil (+1.1% per year) and Argentina (-3.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Whole Powdered Milk

In 2022, supplies from abroad of whole powdered milk decreased by -5.8% to 2.9M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after four years of growth. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 8.6%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 3.1M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, whole powdered milk imports rose sharply to $12.5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $14.5B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (703K tons) was the major importer of whole powdered milk, achieving 24% of total imports. Algeria (256K tons) took an 8.8% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by the United Arab Emirates (6.8%). Indonesia (94K tons), Bangladesh (94K tons), Oman (83K tons), Brazil (82K tons), Thailand (75K tons), Belgium (69K tons), Singapore (59K tons), Iraq (49K tons), Somalia (49K tons) and Malaysia (46K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to whole powdered milk imports into China stood at +5.7%. At the same time, Somalia (+9.8%), Bangladesh (+7.8%), Thailand (+7.3%), Indonesia (+5.6%), the United Arab Emirates (+4.7%), Algeria (+3.5%), Belgium (+3.2%), Iraq (+2.6%) and Brazil (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Somalia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.8% from 2012-2022. Oman experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Singapore (-2.2%) and Malaysia (-2.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+9.2 p.p.), the United Arab Emirates (+2.2 p.p.), Algeria (+2.1 p.p.) and Bangladesh (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($3.1B) constitutes the largest market for imported whole powdered milk worldwide, comprising 25% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Algeria ($1B), with an 8.2% share of global imports. It was followed by the United Arab Emirates, with a 5.8% share.

In China, whole powdered milk imports expanded at an average annual rate of +8.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Algeria (+3.7% per year) and the United Arab Emirates (+5.3% per year).

Imports By Type

Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) dominates imports structure, recording 2.9M tons, which was approx. 95% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (138K tons), committing a 4.6% share of total imports.

Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022. dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (-4.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (+3.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (-3.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($12B) constitutes the largest type of whole powdered milk imported worldwide, comprising 96% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($521M), with a 4.2% share of global imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) imports stood at +2.1%.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average whole powdered milk import price amounted to $4,322 per ton, increasing by 13% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw slight growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the average import price increased by 14% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $4,895 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($4,168 per ton), while the price for dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) totaled $3,768 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (+1.7%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average whole powdered milk import price amounted to $4,322 per ton, rising by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a mild expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the average import price increased by 14% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $4,895 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Malaysia ($4,567 per ton) and China ($4,419 per ton), while Oman ($3,337 per ton) and Iraq ($3,632 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia (+2.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Whole Powdered Milk

Global whole powdered milk exports reduced to 2.7M tons in 2022, waning by -8.4% on 2021 figures. Overall, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 4.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 2.9M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, whole powdered milk exports stood at $11.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when exports increased by 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at $12.7B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

New Zealand dominates exports structure, recording 1.3M tons, which was approx. 50% of total exports in 2022. The United Arab Emirates (218K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with an 8.2% share, followed by Argentina (5.7%), Uruguay (5%) and the Netherlands (4.9%). Germany (83K tons), France (75K tons), Australia (58K tons), Ireland (48K tons), Singapore (41K tons) and Denmark (41K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

New Zealand experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of whole powdered milk. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (+15.3%), Uruguay (+8.0%), Germany (+4.4%) and Ireland (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +15.3% from 2012-2022. France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.6%), Singapore (-2.4%), Argentina (-3.0%), Australia (-6.5%) and Denmark (-7.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United Arab Emirates (+6.3 p.p.), Uruguay (+2.7 p.p.) and New Zealand (+2.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Denmark (-1.7 p.p.), Argentina (-1.9 p.p.) and Australia (-2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, New Zealand ($5.4B) remains the largest whole powdered milk supplier worldwide, comprising 48% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Netherlands ($729M), with a 6.4% share of global exports. It was followed by the United Arab Emirates, with a 5.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in New Zealand amounted to +2.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+0.6% per year) and the United Arab Emirates (+10.1% per year).

Exports By Type

Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) dominates exports structure, amounting to 2.6M tons, which was near 96% of total exports in 2022. Dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (98K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (-5.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (+2.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (-2.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($11.2B) remains the largest type of whole powdered milk supplied worldwide, comprising 96% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($467M), with a 4% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) exports totaled +1.9%.

Export Prices By Type

The average whole powdered milk export price stood at $4,269 per ton in 2022, surging by 11% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the average export price increased by 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $4,426 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($4,760 per ton), while the average price for exports of dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) totaled $4,245 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (+4.2%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average whole powdered milk export price amounted to $4,269 per ton, with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 26% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $4,426 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($5,566 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($3,076 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform