Almond Market

The global almond market is projected to show positive growth in both consumption volume and market value from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.2% and +4.7% respectively. In 2022, consumption decreased by -9.9% but showed notable growth over the past decade. The United States leads in both consumption and production, with stable trends. India is the largest importing country, with significant growth in imports. The United States remains the largest exporter, with increasing export value. Overall, the almond market is expected to see steady growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for almonds worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.8M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $22.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Almonds

In 2022, consumption of almonds decreased by -9.9% to 3.7M tons, falling for the second year in a row after five years of growth. In general, the total consumption indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -12.1% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 4.2M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global almond market value shrank to $15.5B in 2022, declining by -7.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $16.8B in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of almond consumption was the United States (1.6M tons), comprising approx. 42% of total volume. Moreover, almond consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Australia (311K tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Spain (267K tons), with a 7.2% share.

In the United States, almond consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Australia (+12.6% per year) and Spain (+2.2% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($7.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Spain ($1.5B). It was followed by Australia.

In the United States, the almond market increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+4.6% per year) and Australia (+10.6% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of almond per capita consumption was registered in Australia (12 kg per person), followed by Tunisia (5.8 kg per person), Spain (5.7 kg per person) and Benin (5.1 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of almond was estimated at 0.5 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the almond per capita consumption in Australia stood at +11.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tunisia (-1.0% per year) and Spain (+2.1% per year).

Production

World Production of Almonds

In 2022, production of almonds decreased by -9.6% to 3.7M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after five years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 16%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 4.2M tons. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a pronounced increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, almond production reduced to $16.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $16.8B in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Production By Country

The United States (1.9M tons) remains the largest almond producing country worldwide, accounting for 50% of total volume. Moreover, almond production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Australia (360K tons), fivefold. Spain (246K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.6% share.

In the United States, almond production increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Australia (+12.7% per year) and Spain (+1.5% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average almond yield declined to 1.6 tons per ha, shrinking by -12.7% compared with the previous year. In general, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 1.9 tons per ha. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the average almond yield remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global harvested area of almonds rose to 2.4M ha, surging by 3.6% against the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the harvested area increased by 6%. The global harvested area peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports

World Imports of Almonds

For the fifth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in purchases abroad of almonds, which increased by 2.8% to 413K tons in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +82.9% against 2014 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 38% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, almond imports totaled $1.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 17%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

India represented the largest importing country with an import of around 234K tons, which recorded 57% of total imports. China (79K tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Spain (29K tons). All these countries together held near 26% share of total imports. The United Arab Emirates (12K tons), Turkey (10K tons) and Iran (7.1K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

Imports into India increased at an average annual rate of +11.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, China (+39.9%), Spain (+21.3%), Iran (+6.8%) and the United Arab Emirates (+5.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +39.9% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Turkey (-4.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of India (+31 p.p.), China (+18 p.p.) and Spain (+5.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Turkey (-2.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($968M) constitutes the largest market for imported almonds worldwide, comprising 62% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($279M), with an 18% share of global imports. It was followed by Spain, with a 3.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in India totaled +10.9%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: China (+43.7% per year) and Spain (+17.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average almond import price amounted to $3,771 per ton, approximately reflecting the previous year. In general, import price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, almond import price decreased by -20.6% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the average import price increased by 27% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $5,867 per ton in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was India ($4,140 per ton), while Spain ($1,679 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Almonds

In 2022, shipments abroad of almonds increased by 6.5% to 414K tons, rising for the fourth consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, almond exports expanded to $1.6B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United States (306K tons) represented the largest exporter of almonds, committing 74% of total exports. Australia (50K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by Portugal (7%). Spain (8K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to almond exports from the United States stood at +4.0%. At the same time, Spain (+34.1%), Portugal (+22.4%) and Australia (+13.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +34.1% from 2012-2022. The United States (+15 p.p.), Australia (+7.9 p.p.), Portugal (+5.9 p.p.) and Spain (+1.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($1.2B) remains the largest almond supplier worldwide, comprising 77% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Australia ($199M), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by Portugal, with a 3% share.

In the United States, almond exports increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Australia (+12.8% per year) and Portugal (+27.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average almond export price amounted to $3,781 per ton, falling by -4.3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 an increase of 36% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $4,631 per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($4,008 per ton), while Portugal ($1,587 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal (+4.3%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform