Ammonia Market

The global market for anhydrous ammonia is projected to experience steady growth in both consumption and production from 2022 to 2030, with market performance forecasted to maintain an upward trend pattern. Key insights include data on consumption levels, production volumes, imports, and exports, as well as analysis on major producing and consuming countries. The article also discusses pricing trends and notable growth rates in key markets, providing a comprehensive overview of the market landscape for anhydrous ammonia worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for anhydrous ammonia worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 205M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $162.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Anhydrous Ammonia

In 2022, the amount of anhydrous ammonia consumed worldwide totaled 189M tons, leveling off at the previous year's figure. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global ammonia market revenue was estimated at $132.5B in 2022, remaining stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of ammonia consumption was China (51M tons), accounting for 27% of total volume. Moreover, ammonia consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Russia (18M tons), threefold. The United States (17M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 9.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+4.7% per year) and the United States (+0.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($57.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($10.1B). It was followed by Russia.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China amounted to +2.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+1.9% per year) and Russia (+1.4% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of ammonia per capita consumption was registered in Qatar (1,164 kg per person), followed by Russia (128 kg per person), Canada (91 kg per person) and Iran (56 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of ammonia was estimated at 24 kg per person.

In Qatar, ammonia per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+4.6% per year) and Canada (-1.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Anhydrous Ammonia

In 2022, global production of anhydrous ammonia stood at 188M tons, approximately equating the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 4.4% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 190M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ammonia production contracted to $140B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +18.0% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 73%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $160.4B in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of ammonia production was China (51M tons), comprising approx. 27% of total volume. Moreover, ammonia production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Russia (19M tons), threefold. The United States (16M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Russia (+3.4% per year) and the United States (+4.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Anhydrous Ammonia

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded decline in supplies from abroad of anhydrous ammonia, which decreased by -9.2% to 17M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a mild downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 6.3%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 20M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, ammonia imports surged to $18.1B in 2022. In general, imports, however, posted prominent growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 102% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of ammonia imports in 2022 were the United States (2.3M tons), India (2.2M tons), Morocco (1.9M tons), South Korea (1.3M tons), Belgium (0.9M tons) and Turkey (0.8M tons), together resulting at 55% of total import. Norway (501K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (499K tons), France (457K tons), Germany (453K tons), Brazil (445K tons), the Netherlands (389K tons) and Spain (382K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +12.1%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($2.4B), India ($2.2B) and Morocco ($2.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 37% share of global imports. South Korea, Belgium, Turkey, Germany, Norway, France, Brazil, Taiwan (Chinese), Spain and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +18.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average ammonia import price amounted to $1,066 per ton, increasing by 105% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a prominent expansion. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Germany ($1,304 per ton) and Spain ($1,206 per ton), while Taiwan (Chinese) ($928 per ton) and South Korea ($948 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+8.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Anhydrous Ammonia

In 2022, overseas shipments of anhydrous ammonia decreased by -17% to 16M tons, falling for the third year in a row after two years of growth. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 21M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ammonia exports soared to $16.4B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, enjoyed prominent growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 81%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Trinidad and Tobago (3.2M tons), Saudi Arabia (2.5M tons) and Indonesia (1.9M tons) was the key exporter of anhydrous ammonia in the world, constituting 47% of total export. It was distantly followed by Algeria (1.2M tons), Canada (1.1M tons), Russia (1M tons) and the United States (0.9M tons), together achieving a 26% share of total exports. The following exporters - Qatar (543K tons), the Netherlands (476K tons), Malaysia (382K tons), Egypt (340K tons), Germany (304K tons) and Oman (247K tons) - together made up 14% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +37.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ammonia supplying countries worldwide were Trinidad and Tobago ($3.7B), Saudi Arabia ($2.5B) and Indonesia ($1.7B), together comprising 48% of global exports. Algeria, Canada, Russia, the United States, the Netherlands, Qatar, Egypt, Germany, Malaysia and Oman lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

The United States, with a CAGR of +40.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average ammonia export price stood at $1,021 per ton in 2022, increasing by 98% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a remarkable increase. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Egypt ($1,374 per ton), while the United States ($687 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Oman (+21.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform