Cigarettes Containing Tobacco Market

The global market for cigarettes containing tobacco is forecasted to experience a modest growth in consumption and value from 2022 to 2030. Despite a decrease in consumption in 2022, the market is expected to see a gradual increase in the coming years. The United States, China, and Brazil are the top consuming countries, while Poland, Indonesia, and Germany are the main exporters. Prices and imports have remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations in export prices and volumes. Overall, the market is projected to reach 9,744B units and $189.6B in value by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for cigarettes containing tobacco worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 9,744B units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $189.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cigarettes Containing Tobacco

In 2022, consumption of cigarettes containing tobacco decreased by -0.2% to 9,278B units, falling for the third consecutive year after three years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 9,946B units in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global cigarettes containing tobacco market value shrank to $152.3B in 2022, falling by -3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $165.3B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (2,607B units), China (1,951B units) and Brazil (300B units), together comprising 52% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +15.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($38.2B), China ($30B) and Japan ($6.4B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 49% share of the global market. Russia, Pakistan, India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Korea and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 12%.

Brazil, with a CAGR of +14.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of cigarettes containing tobacco per capita consumption was registered in the United States (7.8 units per person), followed by South Korea (2.8 units per person), Russia (2.1 units per person) and Brazil (1.4 units per person), while the world average per capita consumption of cigarettes containing tobacco was estimated at 1.2 units per person.

In the United States, cigarettes containing tobacco per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: South Korea (-0.2% per year) and Russia (-2.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Cigarettes Containing Tobacco

In 2022, global cigarettes containing tobacco production totaled 9,259B units, leveling off at the previous year. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 8%. Global production peaked at 10,053B units in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cigarettes containing tobacco production shrank to $153B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $193.8B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (2,595B units), China (1,955B units) and Indonesia (328B units), with a combined 53% share of global production. Brazil, Russia, Poland, Bangladesh, South Korea, Pakistan, India and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 18%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +15.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Cigarettes Containing Tobacco

In 2022, the amount of cigarettes containing tobacco imported worldwide contracted to 1,069B units, declining by -1.9% against 2021. Over the period under review, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 6.4% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 1,300B units in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cigarettes containing tobacco imports contracted to $21.7B in 2022. In general, imports recorded a slight curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 9.4%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $26.5B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the twelve major importers of cigarettes containing tobacco, namely Germany, Iraq, Spain, Italy, Japan, Cambodia, Libya, the Netherlands, France, the United Arab Emirates, Somalia and Syrian Arab Republic, represented more than third of total import. Vietnam (22B units) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Somalia (with a CAGR of +13.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($1.6B), Germany ($1.3B) and Spain ($1.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 19% share of global imports. Italy, Iraq, France, the Netherlands, Libya, Somalia, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Syrian Arab Republic and Cambodia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Syrian Arab Republic, with a CAGR of +17.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average cigarettes containing tobacco import price stood at $20 per thousand units in 2022, waning by -4.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a slight slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the average import price increased by 3.6% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $23 per thousand units in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($39 per thousand units), while Cambodia ($7.5 per thousand units) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Cambodia (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cigarettes Containing Tobacco

After five years of decline, shipments abroad of cigarettes containing tobacco increased by 0.8% to 1,051B units in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a mild reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when exports increased by 6.5% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 1,343B units. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cigarettes containing tobacco exports dropped modestly to $16.9B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a noticeable downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 4.4%. The global exports peaked at $21.9B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Poland (198B units), distantly followed by Indonesia (101B units), Germany (53B units), South Korea (52B units) and Turkey (49B units) represented the main exporters of cigarettes containing tobacco, together comprising 43% of total exports. Romania (44B units), Lithuania (35B units), the United Arab Emirates (34B units), the Philippines (32B units), Serbia (32B units), the Czech Republic (31B units), the Netherlands (27B units) and Portugal (27B units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Serbia (with a CAGR of +26.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Poland ($3.7B) remains the largest cigarettes containing tobacco supplier worldwide, comprising 22% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($1.3B), with a 7.7% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Poland amounted to +8.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-10.9% per year) and the Netherlands (-10.5% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cigarettes containing tobacco export price stood at $16 per thousand units in 2022, dropping by -4.2% against the previous year. In general, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 6.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $17 per thousand units in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($37 per thousand units), while the Philippines ($7.2 per thousand units) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lithuania (+4.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform