Polycarbonate Market

The global polycarbonate market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted increase in market volume to 15M tons and market value to $43.7B. India leads the world in both consumption and production of polycarbonates, followed by South Korea and China. Import and export trends show fluctuations in volume and value, with China being the main importer and South Korea, the United States, and Thailand being the largest exporters. Average prices for imports and exports have shown a relatively flat trend pattern over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for polycarbonates (in primary forms) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 15M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $43.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Polycarbonates (In Primary Forms)

In 2022, after eight years of growth, there was decline in consumption of polycarbonates (in primary forms), when its volume decreased by -1.2% to 11M tons. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +70.4% against 2013 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 11M tons in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

The global polycarbonate market size contracted to $28B in 2022, standing approx. at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $28B in 2021, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

India (4.2M tons) remains the largest polycarbonate consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 38% of total volume. Moreover, polycarbonate consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, South Korea (1.3M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by China (1.1M tons), with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in India totaled +23.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: South Korea (+0.6% per year) and China (-0.4% per year).

In value terms, India ($9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($3.2B). It was followed by South Korea.

In India, the polycarbonate market expanded at an average annual rate of +20.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: China (-0.5% per year) and South Korea (-1.4% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of polycarbonate per capita consumption was registered in South Korea (24 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (11 kg per person), Germany (5.4 kg per person) and India (3 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of polycarbonate was estimated at 1.4 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the polycarbonate per capita consumption in South Korea was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+4.1% per year) and Germany (-0.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Polycarbonates (In Primary Forms)

After ten years of growth, production of polycarbonates (in primary forms) decreased by -0.9% to 10M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a resilient expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 10M tons in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, polycarbonate production reached $22.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $23.2B. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

India (4M tons) remains the largest polycarbonate producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 39% of total volume. Moreover, polycarbonate production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, South Korea (1.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (1M tons), with a 10% share.

In India, polycarbonate production expanded at an average annual rate of +26.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: South Korea (+1.8% per year) and the United States (-0.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Polycarbonates (In Primary Forms)

In 2022, the amount of polycarbonates (in primary forms) imported worldwide shrank to 4.1M tons, which is down by -9.3% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a slight increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 4.6M tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, polycarbonate imports shrank to $13.4B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 44%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $14.6B, and then dropped in the following year.

Imports By Country

China was the main importing country with an import of about 1.4M tons, which amounted to 33% of total imports. Mexico (223K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 5.4% share, followed by India (5.3%). Germany (165K tons), Malaysia (155K tons), Italy (135K tons), the United States (129K tons), Vietnam (126K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (111K tons), Singapore (101K tons), Hong Kong SAR (77K tons), the Netherlands (74K tons) and Turkey (71K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Vietnam (+12.4%), Malaysia (+9.4%), the United States (+6.8%), India (+6.2%), the Netherlands (+5.1%), Mexico (+4.1%) and Turkey (+3.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +12.4% from 2012-2022. Italy and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Taiwan (Chinese) (-5.6%), Singapore (-6.4%) and Hong Kong SAR (-13.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. India (+2.1 p.p.), Malaysia (+2.1 p.p.) and Vietnam (+2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Taiwan (Chinese), Singapore and Hong Kong SAR saw its share reduced by -2.6%, -2.8% and -6.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($4B) constitutes the largest market for imported polycarbonates (in primary forms) worldwide, comprising 30% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Mexico ($897M), with a 6.7% share of global imports. It was followed by India, with a 5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +1.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mexico (+5.6% per year) and India (+7.6% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average polycarbonate import price stood at $3,234 per ton in 2022, flattening at the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($4,022 per ton), while Malaysia ($2,444 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+2.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Polycarbonates (In Primary Forms)

In 2022, after five years of growth, there was significant decline in shipments abroad of polycarbonates (in primary forms), when their volume decreased by -9.7% to 3.5M tons. Overall, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 3.9M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, polycarbonate exports declined to $10.8B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 40% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $12.2B, and then declined in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, South Korea (637K tons), followed by Thailand (419K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (373K tons), the United States (351K tons), China (291K tons), the Netherlands (247K tons), Spain (210K tons) and Saudi Arabia (200K tons) represented the largest exporters of polycarbonates (in primary forms), together mixing up 77% of total exports. Japan (146K tons), Singapore (120K tons), Hong Kong SAR (88K tons), Malaysia (79K tons) and Italy (78K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Malaysia (with a CAGR of +24.2%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Korea ($1.8B), the United States ($1.2B) and Thailand ($1.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 38% share of global exports. Taiwan (Chinese), China, the Netherlands, Spain, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 53%.

Among the main exporting countries, Malaysia, with a CAGR of +22.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average polycarbonate export price stood at $3,052 per ton in 2022, falling by -2.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 34% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $3,125 per ton, and then reduced in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($4,407 per ton), while Malaysia ($2,018 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+2.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform