Vegetable Oils Market

The global market for vegetable oils is predicted to experience a slight increase in consumption trend over the period from 2022 to 2030, with forecasted growth in both volume and value. China leads in both consumption and production of vegetable oils, while Malaysia is the largest exporter. Import and export prices have seen significant fluctuations over the years. The article provides detailed insights into key market trends, including consumption patterns, production figures, and trade dynamics.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for vegetable oils worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 9.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $23.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Vegetable Fats And Oils

In 2022, consumption of vegetable fats and oils increased by 2.5% to 8.3M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after five years of decline. In general, consumption, however, saw a perceptible curtailment. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 13M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global vegetable oils market value stood at $18.6B in 2022, with an increase of 2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, recorded a perceptible contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the market value increased by 9.1%. Global consumption peaked at $30.5B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (1.9M tons) remains the largest vegetable oils consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 23% of total volume. Moreover, vegetable oils consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (635K tons), threefold. The United States (565K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.8% share.

In China, vegetable oils consumption decreased by an average annual rate of -1.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (-2.5% per year) and the United States (-1.6% per year).

In value terms, the largest vegetable oils markets worldwide were China ($3.4B), Japan ($2.1B) and the United States ($1.5B), with a combined 38% share of the global market.

The United States, with a CAGR of +1.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the market figures.

The countries with the highest levels of vegetable oils per capita consumption in 2022 were South Korea (2.7 kg per person), the UK (2.4 kg per person) and France (2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of -2.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced a decline in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Vegetable Fats And Oils

In 2022, approx. 9.8M tons of vegetable fats and oils were produced worldwide; growing by 5.6% against the previous year. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a noticeable curtailment. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 14M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, vegetable oils production declined slightly to $19.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, showed a perceptible contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 13%. Global production peaked at $29.2B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Malaysia (1.9M tons), China (1.6M tons) and Indonesia (1.2M tons), together accounting for 47% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +4.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced a decline in the production figures.

Imports

World Imports of Vegetable Fats And Oils

In 2022, global vegetable oils imports shrank slightly to 2.8M tons, stabilizing at 2021 figures. Overall, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 20%. Global imports peaked at 3.3M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, vegetable oils imports soared to $5.3B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +85.5% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 47%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (553K tons), distantly followed by Malaysia (262K tons) represented the major importers of vegetable fats and oils, together achieving 29% of total imports. South Korea (122K tons), Denmark (93K tons), Germany (92K tons), Algeria (80K tons), Poland (74K tons), Vietnam (73K tons), Belgium (70K tons), Thailand (61K tons), Nigeria (56K tons), Uzbekistan (52K tons) and Afghanistan (52K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the vegetable fats and oils imports, with a CAGR of +17.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Vietnam (+8.8%), Nigeria (+8.3%), Uzbekistan (+4.0%), Malaysia (+3.7%) and South Korea (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Poland, Belgium, Denmark and Algeria experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Thailand (-2.7%), Germany (-3.7%) and Afghanistan (-10.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China, Malaysia, Uzbekistan and Vietnam increased by +16, +3.1, +1.8 and +1.5 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($824M) constitutes the largest market for imported vegetable fats and oils worldwide, comprising 16% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Malaysia ($343M), with a 6.4% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 3.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +17.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Malaysia (+6.7% per year) and Germany (-0.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average vegetable oils import price stood at $1,876 per ton in 2022, increasing by 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, vegetable oils import price increased by +84.9% against 2019 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,216 per ton), while Nigeria ($909 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+13.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Vegetable Fats And Oils

Global vegetable oils exports expanded markedly to 4.3M tons in 2022, with an increase of 7.3% against the previous year's figure. Overall, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 34%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 4.8M tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, vegetable oils exports skyrocketed to $7.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +102.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 58%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Malaysia (2.1M tons) was the largest exporter of vegetable fats and oils, comprising 48% of total exports. Indonesia (1,002K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 23% share, followed by China (5.3%). The Netherlands (183K tons) and Germany (130K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Malaysia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of vegetable fats and oils. At the same time, China (+107.0%) and Indonesia (+8.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +107.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Germany (-7.8%) and the Netherlands (-9.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Indonesia (+13 p.p.) and China (+5.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Germany (-3.3 p.p.) and the Netherlands (-6.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Malaysia ($2.9B) remains the largest vegetable oils supplier worldwide, comprising 41% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($1.4B), with a 20% share of global exports. It was followed by China, with a 6.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Malaysia amounted to +2.2%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Indonesia (+9.3% per year) and China (+97.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average vegetable oils export price stood at $1,647 per ton in 2022, increasing by 19% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, vegetable oils export price increased by +98.2% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 41%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,560 per ton), while Malaysia ($1,411 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform